Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
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Group 5 — Night sightings for which the sun was more than 10° below the horizon and which were not included in Group 4. Group 6 — Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0° and 10° below the horizon. Group 7 — Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0° and 10° above the horizon. These group numbers were punched on the cards and incorporated into the coding system. The number of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in each group for each identification was then tabulated and is given in Table I. TABLE I OBJECT SIGHTINGS Identification Balloon Astronomical Aircraft Light phenomena Insufficient information UNKNOWN Other Total 1 156 52 187 8 72 134 .64 673 Angle 2 17 6 23 2 12 14 82 of 3 28 43 49 4 26 25 12 187 Elevation 4 83 236 144 25 76 150 * 50 764 Group 5 40 118 60 7 28 86 36 375 6 0 9 5 0 2 6 3 25 7 2 6 2 0 0 7 7 24 ff i According to this table, a large majority of the KNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS in Group 1 (343 out of 467) were either aircraft or balloons. In Groups 4 and 5 combined, a large majority (681 out of 899) were either balloons, aircraft, or astronomical. Accordingly, a re-evaluation of the UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the objective of deter- mining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group 1 might possibly be aircraft or balloons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 might possibly be balloons, aircraft, or astronomical objects. More will be said of this project later. Statistical Chi Square Test In the meantime, mirror graphs had been constructed from the fre- quency tabulations which seemed to show that, -when the KNOWNS (total less UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six characteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of • . ' - • • 6 0
Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.