Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
“R.G.”3 pages
Evaluation e
0-Balloon
1 Mstmnomical
2-Aircrift
3-Light Ptienom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, t i c
6-lnsuffic Into.
7-Psydo logical
8-Unknown
9-Othec
Total
r ...A
Number
Certain
0
A
_A\
&
0
0
0
_ ^
a
Doubtful
0
7
o
o
o
a
o
o
e
7
Total
/f
0
/
q
Certain
00
^V
1AL
0,0~
0.0
fl.0
0.0
£?£>
0O
/ , / • /
» Xfj
'er Cent
Doubtful
ft?
0.0
£>.0
00
(IP
0.0
0.0
Total
00
0-0
rt.0
00
00
/M-
/ 0
e?s}7/07
/s.s
o S
Number
Certain
' ?.
/
0
0
a
Doubtful
X
a
&
C
o
0
/
Total
/
/
2,
0
0
0
0
4s
/O
Percent
Certain
£0.0
/0.0
/£JL
0.0
0.0
/0.0
/00
Doubtful
0.0
/0.0
0.0
0.0
&0
0.0
0.0
0,0
^0.0
Total
#00
/0-0
20.0
00
00
0.0
0.0
0.0
20 c
/00.
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astranomical
2-Airciaft
3-Light Phenom.
4-Birds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
frlnsuffic Info.
7-Psychological
8-UnknoMi
M t t i e i
Total
Number
Certain
J
6
0
a
0
4
a
3
Ooubtfu
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
Total
if
0
0
J-
Per Cent
Certain
/I a
e 3O rttr/uret
Number
Certain
3
Jr
/
&
0
a
J
f
/£>
Doubtful
/
A
0
a
0
0
0
/
Total
{
7
z
fp
0
0
/
/
Jo
PerCent
Certain
6.0
0.0
0JL
0.0
^0-
&0
£0
60.0
Doubtful
&0
/0.0
/0-0^
/0.0
0.0
0-0
0.0
0.0
00
£0
40.0
Total
20.0
3£.O
/£0
/(XO
0.0
0.0
0.0
f0
/00.
Number
Certain
£>4.0/€S /?£'S0&7£js
£"0£. rf#j&SJ7'/0s1/ 0jc S/j: o/f /fire
Number
Certain
0
0
_ ^ _
0
\J^_
3/
Doubtfu
0
0
O
a
/
£0
Total
a
0
,7
0
2.
3
2,
£l
Percent
Certain
0.0
377
2-3
0.0
0,0
0.0
¥•?
Doubtfu
0 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
/•{,
ToUl
0.0
fs.t
33
0.0
Oa
3.3
00
¥•9
3.2.
'00,
{-SO •J&ts/Js
Number
Certain
/
J~
0
0
a
0
J.
0
Doubtful
0
f
O
0.
a
0
0
a
0
0
-7
Total
0
rf
0
0
0
2,
//
PerCent
Certain
?•/
97
^0.
_&£_
0.0
/ / 2
0.0
Doubtful
0.0
(,•?•(.
0.0
0,0
0.0
0.0
00
0-0
0,C
0-0
Total
0.0
?•/
0.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
/£.2
0.0
/00.
//-JO Sf/-0sS»^
Number
Certain
0
0
0
0
/
/
Doubtful
a
/
/
0
a
a
0
0
&
a
2.
Total
0
7
0
0
f
0
Per Cent
Certain
0.0
0.0
0.0
J2*J2-
//. /
0.0
tLS.
Doubtful
0.0
/ / • /
t/-f
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
00
0O
12.Z
Total
0.0
/ / . /
0.0
0P
0.0
0.0
0 0
/ / • /
0.0
/oc
£/-£.€> ^/CCrtSS'DX
Number
Certain
_ ^ _
/
0
0
0
a
a
/
Doubtful
a
0
0
0
0
a
a
a
0
0
0
Total
0
/
0
0
0
(
0
Per Cent
Certain
S0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
&0.O
0.0
/00.O
Doubtful
0.0
00
0.0
0.0
^0-0
0.0
0-0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
00
0.0
0-0
(70
0.0
0.0
Sao
0J2-.
/oo.
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astnjnomical
2-Aucratt
3-Light Phenom.
4-Biids
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuffic kilo.
7-Piydnlogiol
8-Unkno«n
S-Other
Total
Number
Certain
/
0
/
/
S
Doubtful
/
w
0
6
O
O
a
0
a
Total
/
/
,0
/O
/
0
a
/
9
Percent
Certain
/ / • /
G0
0J2_
£0-
IL-L
ya0
31.3
Doubtful
0.0
££.{.
0.0
0.0
00
00
0 0
0.0
H-7
Total
/ / . /
/ / • /
£&.£
0-0
0-0
00
//./
00
00
/ / • / •
/oo.
6-30 Aft/Sv rps
Number
Certain
/
/
2
Jf
Doubtful
0
J
0
0
O
0
O
0
a
Total
/
2.
0
0
0
0
2s
0
//
Per Cent
Certain
LL
/2.Z
7&.L
0.0
00
/£l
0-0
tf27_
Doubtful
0.0
27.3
'0.0
0.0
0 0
00
0-0
0-0
0.0
0-0
2f.3
Total
9-'
0.0
0,0
0O
/fZ
0 0
/00.
Oi/e/C Jo M,SSL/TG,
!>O£AT,C>*S AT. T ^T-ATt*
Number
Certain
0
/0
/
0
a
0
0
3
/
Doubtful
a
/4
/
a
a
0
0
. 0
0
/ j T
Total
0
*•¥
I
0
6
0
z
Percent
Certain
271
a.z
00
$ - • $
/Li
£3
.JU-
JU
Doubtful
0.0
J?.g
0.0
i o
4.0
0.0
0o
04
0o
471
Total
00
a.7
op
fl.O
0.0
7£,7
0-P
13
Z.tf
/a?.
230 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.