Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
Equation
0- Balloon
I-Astnnmical
2-Aucraft
J-Li|tit Pftenon.
4-Birds
S-CloudJ, Dust, t i c
frlnsiflic Into.
7-PsycfDl0|ial
>-Unknown
9-Ottier
T o t -
y-OA
NumbH
Certain
j
J.I
4
o
J
0
f}
7
3S
Doubtful
7
/
o
o
o
/
31
Total
4
//
2
o
1
o
7
4
77
Pet Cent
Certain
/3
2?.i
S.7
O.O
j 3
O.O
/ • • *
O.O
9>
4M
Doubtful | Total
9.1
J.L
/3
O.O
O .a
O.O
O.O
/.3
So.C
S.7
Jft
/4i
0,0
( • *
O.o
9-i
/oo.
fr/o/ii' 3
Number
>rtain
/
J-
J"1
A
a
0
4
o
/o
o
o
Total
7
/
4
0
4
o
/o
Per Cent
Certain
JL
/3JL
OO
O.o
0 o
2L.3
S-Z
ILL
Doubtful
S3,
J.&
AO
O.O
O.o
O.a
t.o
Total
79
k*
e.o
0.0
f.O
2Li
S3
loo-
is/A/
Number
Certain
O
2
e>
3
a
o
/ A
0
AH
Doubtful
/
j
46
1
a,
o
o
s
Total
4
9
O
4
o
/A
o
34.
Per Cent
Certain
• i f
S.L
/J.f
t.0
O.o
'4-7
o.o
S3-3
O.o
11.8
Doubtful
2.1
J-.C
JA/
o.o
X-9
o.o
o o
0.0
O.o
o.o
21.2
Total
JJT.O
o.o
//./
O.a
/£-)
0.O
33.3
0.O
/0O.
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-Astnnmical
2-Airciaft
3-Lifhl Phenoni.
4-Bints
5-Clowls, Dust, e t c
6-lnsiflic Info.
7-Psytholojical
S-UntoKian
KlttlM
Total
Number _ j
Certain
/s\
2
/o
o
o
a
«r
/
3
Doubtfu
3
$
o
.•?
0
/
o
o
Total
^?
a '
/S
a
a
3
JT
3
• Per Cent
Certain
JS.t
/ff.X
O4
o.o
0.O
.o
O.o
3.2
-CJ
^ • 2
*?4
3,2
/fie.
£-3o /V/virfj
Number
Certain
/ *
/e
JL
a
a
7
-r
U
Doubtful
/2
4
/o
4
0
O
O
O
o
o
3*
Total
3o
14
li
C
o
o
7
j '
/(.
PerCenl
Certain
/f.4
Sot
12,
12.
a.o
UL
nx
Doubtful
/Ji-9
4*
/*.f
4-1
0o
O.O
O0
o.o
0.a
32.3
Total
2%i
tf-t
11 o
U
Oo
Oo
J4
/7-2
Jt-2
Number
;«tain
t
^L
o
£>
A
0
0
//
2A.
Doubtful
3
j '
/
o
»
o
e>
a
o
9
Total
fl
/(,
?
0
O
0
0
0
//
Percent
Certain
Jl.L
AXL
41
fi.o
O.o
0.0
O.O
0.0
2X.C
Al
79./
Doubtful
U
//•£>
J-3
0O
Oo
-&O-
6.O
o.o
O.O
0 O
Total
3S.I
31-2
70
&&-
-AJi-
0,0
00
00
4-7
leo^
Hunter
Certain
/3
/o~
_£_
a
a
/
3.
£±
4
Doubtful
JT
4
o
o
o
o
(
o
o
I*
Total
/f
rt
O
1
3
4
/e>3
Percent
Certain
fM
.?
O.o
O.O
O 0
0.0
/s
Number
Certain
g
a
J
4-
a
J.3\-
Doubtful
2.
1
0
o
0
o
0
0
Total
1
a
o
1
0
4
o
/f
Percent
Certain
O.O
O O
4X.I
O.O
a.o
Oo
~C3
O.o
0-0
£&
Doubtful
/AS
s.i
S.3
O.O
O.O
o.o
o.o
o. o
o.o
3U
Total
/O.S
/if
414
O.O
O.O
0*
A/./
o.o
/oo.
&
Certain
/
/
/9
0
o
0
/
oo..
o.o
0.O
O.O
21.1
Total
so.6
o.o
££l
2C
^2C
o.o
x.C
o.o
3/~t
/0O.
Evaluation
0-Balloon
l-Astmnonical
2-Airciaft
3-Light Ptierna.
4-Birih
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsiflic tifo.
7-Psydnki|ial
S-Unkno«n
M t h w
Total
Number
Certain
/7
/
/3
/
/
o
• 1 '
/
Jo
/
^o_
Doubtful
O
/o
/
o
0
c?
0
o
1
t1
Total
/
23
/
o
s~
1
Jo
Z
17
PerCent
Certain
JJL
IA1
/*
/•3
to
ZLAL
2C.a
A3
tfl
Doubtful
u0.0
/3.o
/.*
0 0
o.o
DO
O.o
32.1
Total
*U
0.3
Ae Jo AI/'/uTfis
Number
;ertain
£
/
o
0
/
J,
7
4
Doubtful
3
1
0
O
0_
5~
o
o
1
$
Total
4
/
o
t?
/
0
p.
7
/
XS
Per Cent
Certain
24.o
/2.o
4.o
4.O
O.O
4o
O.O
to
ZS.o
o.e
too
Doubtful
/a.o
JhO_
O.e
O.O
o.o
O.O
o.o
4.o
Jo.o
Total
Mo
4.0
a.o
O.o
4.o
O.o
go
4-O
/ML-
l>u/e/)T/o'S sfor STATED
Number
Certain
/ '
/
'9
/
o
2o
i
/•r
/
13
Ooubtful
3
3
4
0
/
0
o
0
a
a
//
Total
13
4
2*
I
1
o
2o
/
/s-
S4
PerCent
Certain
US-
Ax
J2.L
JJL
0.0
O.o
23t
/2
A7.f
1.1
Ul
Doubtful
3.6
3M
0.0
/.*
0.a
O.o
0.0
O.O
o.o
/3.I
Total
/•r.s
4-1
27,4
/•z
(.*
O.o
J3.{
/ • *
/7,9
7./
/O0.
228 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.