Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
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sfeeas of 0rtj£drs
Evaluation
0- Balloon
i-Astronomical
2-Aircratt
3-Li{nt Phenom.
4-Birds
5-Clogds, Dust, e t c
6-lnsufiic Info.
7-Psychological
8-Unknown
9-Omei .
Total
ALL Y/rtRS
Number
Certain
0
a
O
/
j
ir
Doubtful
o
o
o
/
o
o
37
[Tola
9
0
I
1
1
it
3
/22
PerCent
Certain
_ £ £
23A.
00
0.0
01
U.
0.O
/4-.i
Doubtful
uo.o
OS
o. o
a-8
0o
a.o
3e.i
Total
/•I*
ty-7
?y
//$
Number
Certain
0
/
0
a.
o
o
o
o
/
Doubtful
0
0
a
o
o
6
O
o
o
0
0
Total
a
e>
o
o
• o
a
j
Per Cent
Certain
a.o
/&JL
.&£_
0.0
a.o
0.0
O.o
-&*>
Doubtful
OJ>
-&O-
0.0
Oo
O.O
O.O
OO
O.O
o.O
O.O
Total
OO
/ae.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
O.a
O.o
0.0
IOO.
'-TL
/
n/tis foe /?^L v^/9£s &#r&£>
/94X
Number
;ertain
0
a
0
0
0
0
S
Doubtful
a
4>
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
&
Total
0
a
0
0
0
0
a
/4
Per Cent
Certain
O.o
ill
0.0
O.o
9.0.
O.O
00
0.0
lAx
0.0
Hi
Doubtful
0,0
42.1
0 0
a.o
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
a.o
0.0
431
Total
Off
US
ao
0.0
(10
0-0
f/S
00
Number
Certain
a
0
_ £ .
O
O
a_
O
0
0
O
Doubtful
0
ca
0
#
0
Z)
0
0
&
Total
a
4
j
a
"
o
o
o
/
o
a.
/
&
Doubtful
O
J
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
3
Total
tf
6'
0
a
0
0
•n
/
Percent
Certain
t.o
Ate.
0.O
O.O
4>.O
M
e.o
JLL
IL1
Doubtful
a.o
0.0
o.a
a.o
ao
0,0
a.o
0.0
33.3
Total
0,O
O.O
O.O
O.O
/ / • /
0.0
22*2,
/ / • /
(to
/a S2
Number
Certain
a
Jo
6
0
0
/
_^_
0
Doubtful
*
X
•0
1
O
O
7
0
0
/7
Total
• J
/ /
0
f
/
a1
/ /
Per Cent
Certain
fi.D
US
7.f
O.O
0.O
I.&
/o.i
0.0
7f.2
Doubtful
Z/*
2.L
0.0
/•3
0.0
0.O
0.0
0.0
2/2
Total
/0 •*>
JO
A3
1.3
^ 3
2.6
/oo.
Number
Certaii Doubtful Total
PeiCait
Certain Doubtful Total
\
\
sr/?£•£a A/ar ,&
/ • /
OS
O.o
o.o
o.x
/A
37.1
Total
(f,7
11.7
31
/ • *
0.O
/fal-f
/a
Number
Certain
/A
/
0
0
q
4-0
Doubtful
a
0
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
7
ToUl
J
/4
!
)
o
o
2_
4
f
PerCent
Certain
4.S
tu
1.4
0.0
0.0
4-t
f.s
A/. 4
Doubtful
a.o
4-t
a.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ao
a.o
0.0
4j
Total
0.0
0.0
7ft
vSJ-
J/f
/od
Number
Certain
_ ^
7
0
^
0
4-
33
Doubtful
3
1
l
1
0
0
0
0
Total
y
if
a1
2
a
)
4
r
s4
Percent
Certain
3.9
I3.o
0.0
1$
00
lt.1
3.7
Doubtful
r.C
22 2
/4
/i
0.0
0.0
0.0
o;o
Total
9.t
tf.?
W
0,0
/•9
i-i
to*.
Number d
Certain
7
J.
6
n
13
Doubtful
O
44
X.
0
0
c
O
0
O
Total
7
f
Q
0
11
1
/4
4-
Hf
Per Cent
Certain
~M111,
0.0
/•i
0.0
Mi
a.i
mAA\
Us
Doubtful
0.0
31.0
/•I
0,0
6.0
0.0
O.o
0.0-
0.0
0.0
3S.1
Total
S4.6
u0-0
1-7
0.0
til
t/4
/0~<>.
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-Astronomial
2-Aircraft
3-Lijht Phenom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, t i c .
S-lnsuHic hlo.
7-Psycto logical
(•Unknown
mother
Total
/C?J'0
Number
Certain
g
/x
o
o
o
/•i-
<?
/ 7
J
Doubtful
3
7
o
o
o
0
o
I
/7
Total
/(
3a
/a
o
0
o
-ML
o
(7
<?
Per Cent
Certain
JLL
I2S
0.0
O.O
0O
3.1
Doubtful
3 i
Is
O.O
O.0
0.0
0.0
O.e
t.o
111-
Total
(IK
(f.i
fio
O.o
/££
0.0
223.
¥,/
Number
Certain
6.
C
_z.
a
0
S3.
/
3
S3
Doubtful
3
g
4
//
o
o
o
0
o
/j
Total
j '
10
1
0
/ X
1
J
70
Per Cent
Certain
t.L
0.0
171
JA
4-3-
Doubtful
4-3
//•4
S.I
1.4-
0.0
a.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
Z4.3
Tolal
to
-HL
/•</
-3t£
r*s3
/oi,
/fS~2
Number
Certain
4$
/of
^9
/s
4
0
i'S
7
te*.
Doubtful
4o
—2£-
9
3
O
0
lit
Total
•U
If
'1
0
Hi
9
77
hi
Per Cent
Certain
7(,
It*
1-4-
2AL
o.C
0.0
/J.J'
/ • /
*-7
7/9
Doubtful
&4
/IC
1-4
o.y
0.0
0.0
a. 3
0.0
•/.c
2$.l
Totol
If.'
?.sf
/ /
(U
/7.x,
/oo~,
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
PerCent
Certain Doubtful Total
"• ••.•«•
D
206 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.