Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this was not assumed to be prima facie evidence that "flying saucers" did not exist. I In those cases in which an attempt to reduce the information to a factual level failed completely, the report was eliminated from further con- sideration, and thus not included in the statistical analysis. About 800 reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of these reports were rejected because they were extxexoely nej^uljous; the rest were rejected because they contained highly conflj^cjting statements. The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his report, logically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable form. Ratings were assigned on the basis of the following factors of in- formation, 'considered in relation to one another: (1) The exp_e_xience of the observer, deduced from his occupation, age, and training; (2) The consistency among the separate portions of the description of the sighting; (3) The general quality and compljeteness of the report; (4) Consideration of the observer' s fact-reporting ability and attitude, as disclosed by his manner of describing the sighting. ' In cases in which insufficient information was available to make a judgment of the observer or report, none was made, but the report was accepted for the statistical study. • The third step in the process of evaluation, the attempted identifica- tion of the object or objects sighted, was done twice, fi^gj^by the individual who made the transcription of the data (the preliminary identification), and later (the final identification) by a conference of four persons, two repre- sentatives from ATIC and two from the parcel of consultants. Although representatives of ATIC participated in making the final identifications, it must be emphasized that any previous identification of a sighting made by ATIC was not introduced or referred to in any way. In the coding system, the choices provided for final identifications were based on ATIC s previous experience in analysis of the data. They had found that the majority of sightings could be classified as misinterpre- tatiorxs of common objects or natural phenomena. Accordingly, categories for objects most frequently present in the air were provided. Balloons, aircraft, astronomical bodies (such as meteors), birds, and clouds or dust were recognized as major categories. The less frequent, but common objects, such as kites, fireworks, flares, rockets, contrails, and 11
Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.