Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
“Roe”1 page
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-tetmnonicil
2-Aircraft
3-Lifhl Phenoii.
4-Birto
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
e-manic M > .
7-Piycfoloral
S-Unk«i«i
9-Otner
Total
Number
Certain
Xi
0
/S
J2.
J
Iff
Doubtful
y
90
A3.
.2.
y
0
0
0
3
t/7-
Total
1
HI
//If
£
I
ir
z
J-7
PerCent
Certain
IA
304
1.1
0.7
0 -4
SIM
Doubtful
i f
n
0.1
£> 0
o.o
t.Q
Voi
Total
J-.7
/M
i-H
•0-3
s:z
0 7
?>y-
/hi
160.
6 ~/0 ^j f£0/V05
Number
Certain
JJL
a
0
8
0
3.1
JL
78
Doubtful
/
/9
9
/4
0
6
0
0
3f
Total
6
7-7
3
1
0
f
0
1-/
z.
//3
PerCent
Certain
Jl
If.?
0.1
O.O
Al
-Zl
Al
i.t
Sf.O
Doubtful
I*
1.8
O.I
0.0
00
0,0
0.0
31.0
Total
nt
7-3-1
X.7
0.f
0.0
0J>
/%.&
/•?
/OO.
//-JS JV^/C^
Number
Certain
3tf
/
/
4 a
/S"
6
Total
n
n
toi
7
/
3
?•£
f
rr
/r
Per Cent
Certain
MA.
ML
H.I
AL
1A
AA
AL
J$
je.i
Jl
Doubtfu
f.S"
1-0
o.o
,
Number
:ertain
/
- /
/o
-21
_ t
L3L
Doubtful
2
0
6
/
0
J
¥1
Total
4-/
17
3
2-
1
/O
f
37
//
PetCent
Certain
M
JAR
S.2
0.1
MA
MA
J&
J2l
ziA
M
Doubtful
7.0
91
11
tJ.
DO
6.0
t-0
O.f,
4(1
1-1
Total
aU
£f
ps
/DO.
//or Srjr&p
Number
Certain
JA
1
J&
sf
%
Doubtfu
?o
P
7
0
d
4
///
Total
/
/ £ ?
/o
{0*
SYR
Percent
Certain
JL2
M3-
J L f
o.f
J2J.
-Ll
JfO
-£&
71-7
Doubtful
ft
t.i
do
M
0,1
a.o
Total
//.//
/IT
J./
0.2-
/.?
/%o
(.%
M
£///>/. i/Ar/0/1/
Evaluation
D-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aucraft
3-Ltgfit Phenom.
4-Buds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuffic. Info.
7-Psycholojical
8-UnknoM
M t t l e r
Total
Number
Certain
o
6
o
—&\
0
0
/
Doubtfu
• 6
/
0
0
0
0
0
O
o
0
I
Total
0
*t
P
0
0
0
p
0
/
,f
P n C e n t
Certain
60.0
0.0
0.0
-Jl
O.O
JLL
YJ1
[Ml
0.0
Doubtfu
0-0
0.O
&p
0.0
to
0,1
OP
O.o
2D.0
ToUl
CO
m
0.0
0.0
0,0
O.o
oo
0.0
D.D
?J>.6
/OO.
Number
Certain
/
a
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
\~~/
Doubtful
6
J
0
0
0
0
o
a
0
6
Total
3
0
0
0
£>
6>
0
0
0
J
s Pet Cent
Certain
6.0
33.3
fit)
O.D
0.0
O.D
0.0
Q.Q
0-0
0.0
Doubtful
00
66.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
et>
o.o
o.o
0-0
/?.O
fr-7
Total
00
/ooo
o.o
0.0
o-o
0.0
ao
0-0
0.0
0.0
f<>0.
//-3J Jeco/v0J
Number
:ertain
~7
/
a
a
/
10
Doubtful
d
0
/
0
o
0
a
/
0.0
P.*
/(.?
£3
4J.7
1.3
/OO.
Number
Certain
0
p
H-
0
&
Pet Cent
Certain
0.0
y£JL
f>,0
JUL
u!LLrol>
1M\
yAL
ll67
Doubtful
O.0
/ff
u.7
0.0
P.6
ao
0.0
0-0
0-0
O.O
?J.3
Total
AD
/(•7
ff.7
00
OO
6,0
0.0
D,o
6C-7
do
/0t>.
4
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Light Phenoa.
4-Birds
5-Cloods, Dust, e t c
S-lnsutlic kilo:
7-Psycnolo|ial
S-UnknoMi
9-Olher
Total
6/ S£'COAfGS — S'M/m>T£J
Number
Certain
0
1
0
0
__L
0
/
7
Doubtful
0
f\
0
ft
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
%
p
0
I
0
MA-
Doubtful
fi.t
AO
O.O
0-0
0.0
0.0
O.0
o.o
00
0.0
0.0
Total
&p
o.o
fit-.*
00
o.o
O.D
ZU
/f.3
100,
Number
Certain
a
o
0
0
o
0
~2_
a
7
0
3
Doubtful
a
0
0
0
o
0
• 0
0
0
£>
Total
O
•0
0
n0
-Z-
• /
0
3
Percent
Certain
0.0
0.D
O.O
6.0
o.o
o.o
K7
O.o
33.3
0.0
/0OJ>
Doubtful
0.0
0.0.
0.0
0-0
0.0
O.o
0.O
0.0
0.O
Total
AO
0.0
O.I)
0.0
0,0
00
66,7
o.o
?3.3
do
Mo.
Number
:ertain Doubtful
V
Total
Per Cent
Certain
t.
v
Doubtful Total
A/ar Srs4r^£>
Number
Certain
IE
0
0
^ i
JL
_J_
3?
Doubtful
/[
<?
PerCent
Certain
J2A
• 7
0 0
0.0
1.0
22JL
Doubtful
0.0
9-3
0.0
O-O
0-0
O.O
r a.o
X.3
0,0
0.0
t/.$
Total
/(•3
47
o.p
0.0
1(3
9.3
Z23
IU
ftp,
161 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.