Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
“Roe”1 page
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aircrafl
3-Light Phenom.
4-Bnds
5-Clouds. Oust, etc
6-lnurtic Info.
7-Psvcholotal
S-Unknowi
S-Ottiet
Total
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astmomical
2-Aircraft
3-Lijht Ptimm.
4- Birds
5-Clouds, Oust, etc
6-lnsuffic Info.
7-Psycholojical
S-Unkiwm
9-OBIM
Total
,
Certain
/
/0
0
0
0
JL
/
0
/ f
Number
doubtful
0
T
0
fi
0
p
0
0
0
0
5~
4?z
Total
)
/S
/
p
0
0>
2_
0
/
0
Z0
'PS1 -
Number
Certain
o
P
3
73
3 /
Doubtfu
/
0
P
0
0
0
0
0
3
-
ToUl
s~
p
p
0
3
/3»
5~
30
Certain
5''0
S0.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
{00
0.0
S0
-S~7
>
/.ess
PerCent
Doubtful
0.0
AS.0
0.0
0.0
0-0
0.0
0.P
0.0
0-0
Total
s.o
7S.0
s:o
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
0.0
/00.
nrs
Per Cent _ j
Certain
/ / • /
/ / . /
(LL
o.o
P.O
o.o
1-3
ML
36./
U.I
Doubtfu
ao
o.o
0.0
00
0.0
0.0
0.0
f-3
J3.?
ToUl
/3?
/ / • /
/?•?
00
0.0
13
3£./
/00.
j
6~-/0
Number
;ertam
P
3
0
0
0
a
0
o
0
Doubtful
0
Z-
0
0
0
o
0
p
0
p
Total
0
_5
3
P
0
P
0
P
P
CO/v
Certain
0.0
ff.0
0-0
o.o
fit
0.0
0.0
0-C
U7
a
Per Cent
Doubtful
0.0
37.3
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
33.3
Total
fi.t
0.0
0./}
00
at
P0
0.0
0.0
/00.
6-3P /ty/A/t/rtt
Number
Certain
f
3
0
0
__^
/
/3
1
3Z.
Doubtful
2-
j
0
0>
0
0
0
P
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7
ToUl
/ /
p
p
0
3
/
/3
3
31
PerCent
Certain
J31
_Z2
00
o.o
0 0
$21
Doubtful
A'
7,7
0.0
0.0
0,0
0.0
AO
0.0
r./
77.9
ToUl
ZU
/St
0.0
0.0
7.7
U
31.3
7,7
/00,
S/6/? e /•WSJ
77-3,0 S^LOHtrS
Number
Certain
o>0
/
0
_L
0
Doubtful
/
/
O-
0
0"
0
0
P
P
0
4-
ToUl
/
7
$
£)
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00
/
P
/
0
/0
30
Number
Certain
3
j_
0
0
o?
&
/
o>
z
Doubtful
0
1
P
P
P
0
0
0>
0
*
J
ToUl
3
3
J-
0
0
0
/
0
2-
//
F
Certain
3ZJL
2£A
J2A
00
0.0
.11
JO,
7S0
erCent
Doubtful
0.Z
00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
AO
O.0
250
ToUl
6z
3ZS
0.0
00
0.0
6-2
0.P
0.0
700.
s
PerCent
Certain
Z7.3
/3.X
0.0
ao
0.0
0.0
f.7
/zz
o.o
Z2/7L
Doubtful
0.0
If.Z
0.0
0.0
P.O
00
0.0
0.0
Z7,3
Total
2-7.1
7?,'•?
0-0
0.O
0-0
f.7
0.0
/f.7
0.0
/m
0/ c
n-60 S
Number
Certain
l_
0
0
-A0
0
0
3
/
7
Doubtful
0
p
0
£)
0
A-
ToUl
/
,2-
Z
0
P
0
P
/
?
£TCo/>
Percent
Certain
ML
ZZ.2
J2A
A0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33$.
M-L A
77.?
Doubtful
0J
ft.2
O.P
O.D
00
0.0
00
0}
_£_
67
Doubtfu
/
7
3
0
P>
0
0
0
0?
0'
//
Total
s~
ft
p
0
0
76
0
?•
7?
Certain
X3.A
/$./
0.0
P.O
0.0
2*.2
0.0
's?.S
U7
PerCent
Doubtful
7.7/
7-7
4-2
O.P
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
00
/S-.3
Total
??•?
2-2.1
0,0
0.0
OP
Z2.2
0.6
/ZS
7-.?
/0a
T#4t-£ 7)9s £t//)£.&/}r/0/i/ 0f 0A//r &atfr/A/6 s £V 00/>/97~/0/t/ 07r S/6//r//i/G
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astrtmomical
2-Aircraft
3-Lijtit Pbenom.
4-Bnds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuffic Into.
7-Psycholojical
S-UnknoMi
9-Other
Total
Evaluation
O-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Light Phenoa.
4-Birrb
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsutfic kilo.
I' Psycho w|i tM
S M M U X M I
s-omt.
Total
/
Number
Certain
P
/
£>
0
P
P
10
//-
0
/3
Doubtfu
0
Z
0
0
0)
0
0
er.0*
ToUl
0
J0
/
P
£
0
0
/s~
05 —
Number
Certain
Z-
J_
P
• o
0
Z
/f
Doubtful
/
r
/?
0
i
P
r
ToUl
?
/
/
P>
__/_
/
/£>
0-3
PerCent
Certain
0.0
F3.3
JLL
0.0\
0.0
P.C
0.C
2J.7
0.0
&7
Doubtfu
0.0
/3.3
0.0
0.0
CO
0.0
0.p
0.0
00
0.0
/ 3.3
ToUl
0.0
£64
6?
P.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
•?(?
0,0
700,
F
Certain
JLZ
0.0
/3.C
00
00
0.0
4.3
00
U-3S
S.7
7-13
'erCent
Doubtful
U-.3
U.I
#•?
0.0
0.o
0.0
4-J
0.0
00
P. 7
Total
/3-D
'73
0.0
0.0
J/--3
4.3
f.7
Number
Certain
P
3
/
0)
0
0
-ft
2
6
Doubtful
0
O
0
0
P>
0
Total
0
3
/
0
0?
0
0
2-
6
PerCent
Certain
ao
$££.
ao
0.0
£0_
00
00
/00.O
Doubtful
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
0-0
0.0
00
0-0
ToUl
A0
50-0
op
0.0
0.0
a.O
o.o
313
0.0
Number
;ertain
2-
j l
/
P
0
Z Z J
Doubtful
0
/
4-
0
0>
o
Total
/
P
0
P
3
Z3
Certaiiv
17
0.0
ao
t*j
Ul
/3.0
7f3
'erCent
Doubtful
O,0
4--1
P.P
PO
0O
O.O
o.o
0-0
0.0
7-/.7
ToUl
?•?
U-l
0>.O
0.0
J&JL
0.0
1(1
/3.0
/00.
t
Certain
0
3
3
d
o
0
0
_z0
//~3/.
Number
Doubtful
0
P
P>
0
/0
0
0
0
0
/
ToUl
0
3
3
0
/
0)
c>
0
/
0
7
Certain
04
37*5
J7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0-0
0-0
/zs
0.0
37S
Percent
Doubtful
0,0
do
0.0
0.0
/ZS
0,0
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
Total
0.6
17.S
0.p
/2-S
0.0
0.0
0.0
7ZS
0-0
Number
:ertain
/
/
-L
0>
0
JZ_
0
2_
P>
7
Doubtful
0
/
P
0
0>
0
P
P
P
/
ToUl
/
/
0
0
O
£_
0
0
ft
Certain
'ZS
J2S
0.0
00
O-O
xr.o
0.0
0-0
67S
>er Cent
Doubtful
0.0
/zs
.0.0
0.0
J£
0.0
00
0.0
00
0.0
os
ToUl
2S-.C
'2.S
0.0
0.0
0.0
•ao
O.D
/0O.
?/~£c
Number
Certain
0
0
3
0
0
P
0
P
/?
0
3"
Doubtfu
0
/
/
0
0>
0
£>
0
0
0
Total
0
/
4
P
P
0
0
0>
0
0
s
-CO/VA
Certain
0,P
0.0
0.0
ft-P
O-P
0.0
P.O
o.o
60'0
s
PerCent
Doubtful
0.0
20.0
20.0
P.P
O.P
0.0
0.0.
0.P
ap
0£>
UP.O
Total
0-P
MO
?/>-0
0.0
0.0
O.D
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
/PP.
/l7or Sr-Arf-j?
Number
Certain
7
3-
/
0
70
1
/3
3
3Z
Doubtful
ft
0
0
£)
p
p
0
•<?
72-
Total
4
0
p
fp
/
UL.
3
#•?
F
Certain
7.Z
£.7
it./
2.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
3-6 $~
0/
7S7S-
'erCent
Doubtful
u,/
7£.3
4-./
0-0
o.O
0.0
O.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
US
Total
{%3_
Z2.1,
7-0
00
OJ)
204
X6
1(.S
6./
700
159 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.