Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
f Evaluation 0-Balloon lAslmronical PAHC.lft J-Lijtil Phenom. • Buds S-Clouds. Dust, e t c frlnsuBic M o . 7-Psycrslo|jcil t-UnknoM ).Otlier Total *** Certain / / a j ? a ? 0 20 Sir Number Doubtful ^ 0 0 0 (? 0 0 0 /I "PN6 ToUI n i 0 0 7 >S AffP /.csj Certain 11 nc i.i i. r-f 7? 1-9 0(1' 5.1 00 lot 11 /to Number ;erUm d 23.7. ;?-0 o.o 5.C J.J 33.1 0.0 /Oo. //-fc Number >rtain 0 a $ $ y &- Doubtful 7 / 0 0 0 a O Total / / a y 0 / Certain 0.0 o.o I* 0.0 0.0 t.a f-3 0.0 111 0.0 58.1 'erCent Doubtful /in 8 3 00 8^> o.ff 00 00 S 0 oo tl-7 ToUI 111 g-3 if-3 Q.O 0-9 9.% 0.9 H'l 8.1 /ot. 31 Number Certain D 0 3 a -A. / y Doubtful a o 0 a a ^ a a i ToUI a a o o y 0 y Per Cenl Certain o.o 10 CO.O 1.0 (1 ° Q.O 2P.0 0.0 Q.O 20.O /oo.o Doubtful O.f Off OP O.I 0.0 o-o 09 ff-9 P.O 0.0 O.O Total 0.4 to p.o Q.O 0.9 (1,0 UP 9.9 >.P 29.0 /OO. 1 Enluarwn 0- Balloon 11-Astiononial 2-Aiio« 3-Lijht Phenon. I-Birds 5-Clouih, Dust, etc 6-umfIic H o . 7-Psydnlo|ial S-Unkxm »-OttlC TcUl Q Setot/ps -—S~A?/A/i/rej N m t a Certain / / a /) r / • a Doubtful / o (7 (2 0 o 0 (7 7 Total srtain / a /) y Doubtful 0 f? 0 9.0 9.D 0.0 0-0 0.9 o-o Total ro.a 33.^ «?3 Off 9.9 0J 0.0 8.1 0.0 o.o /Of. /Vt>T Sr^rjfr/? Number Certain / y _zo / / 0 JL Doubtful £ 1 / 0 0 £ 9 1 3 / / 6 • t 7 U Percent Certain 1.0 ll.-i .5.2 0.0 1-1 Q.O iy.8 0.0 f-3 3.^ S5.9 Doubtful V15. L i t 1.7. ?-3 0.0 Q.O 9.0 Q.O 4-7 Total W.P 41. f 7-3 A 1 3-S Q.O n.t O.P 1.1 8-2 100 Evaluation 0-Balloon 1-Astronomical 2-Aircratt 3-Lijtit Phewa. 4- Biros S-Clouds, Dust, etc frlnsuffic mk>. 7-Psycholo(ical t-UnknoMi 9-Otli« Total S~ Sec otfcs AMP J-ess Number Certain a 0 a /& IL Doubtfu ^) V o 0 a o Total 0 y a / 0 </ C / a /as Percent Certain o.o II-H 0.0 90 00 O.P 3.9 O.o 1-0 0.0 It.7 Oubtti 0.0 no3.? 0.0 1.0 o.o 9-0 o.o 0.0 0.0 gl\ Total 0.0 nt 3 ? o.t 1-0 0.0 3-2 0.0 1.0 00 /OO. Number Certain 0 / ft / 'a -4- Doubtful 0 C <? 0 0 d 0 7 Total 0 6 / </ / / / Percent Certain 0.0 0.0 ".0 OJ 7.1 0.0 7.1 0.0 m7.1 5O.D Doubtful 0-0 11 0.0 0.0 0- 0 do 0-0 o.o 10 50.0 Total 00 429 1.1 0.0 1.1 1-9 1.1 Off QU I.l 100. Number Certain a d y? s" Doubtful a c a d a Total 0 yj J ay 0 a Percent Certain o.o 30.0 IO.O 9.1 D.9 90 0.0 05.0 0.8 10.0 Doubtful o.o lO.o 00 o.o i 0 Q.O 9-0 0.0 0.0 00 V.I Total ff.} CP.O 10.0 o.o 4-' 0.4 S.P o.o 25.0 OP I 00, Number Certain O 7 0 y L 0 0 Doubtful 0 ) P (0 o o I Total 0 u 7 0 3 0 I 0 /3 P Percent Certain 0.0 10-1 25.0 0.0 10.1 0.9 1C 0.0 0.0 Id, Doubtful 00 '3.C o.o ,0f 0.0 00 op 0.0 O.P Q.O i.e. ToUI 0.0 Q5.0 0 t in O.P 3 £_ 9-f if I. if Q-0 /OO. I Evaluation 0-Balloon 1-Asuonomical 2-Aiiuaft 3-Lntit Phenom. «-Buih S-Clouds, Oust, etc cVlnsuffic Info. 7-Psrcholojical ft-Unknoivn Wither Total £/^ £~CCAIPS — Number Certain - 7 0 P D __£ O c 30 Doubtfu / 5" ? P O o 0 ^ p O ToUI fc 7 o r 6 t) T 1 u -S~s Per Cenl Certain 23.1 5.-3 o.o 00 0.0 /19 /3.3 ZC [31 Doubtfu u 'U f.3 O.O 0.0 . 00 o.o 0.0 0-0 0.0 71.1 Total IS.S 33.7 0-0 O.O 0J 15-2 Q.O J12 U 100. Number Certain X 5 0 0 o z / fl 1 Doubtful tl O i 3 0 0 D D o o n Total e 6 $ 0 0 I / • ' ur PerCent Certain 13.1 II. 1 0.0 o.o 0.0 M.H 7-7 .11 Doubtful 8.1 0.0 08.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Q.O 0.0 37.0 Total /j.3 111 HO.O 0.0 O.I o.o. a-z 2.2 100. Number ;ertain P -3-0 Cl -Ji- ff 1 0 6 F / r Doubtful 0 1 / 0 0 0 0 0 Q 0 .2. Total 0 tf 1 0 P 0 I 0 • £ r 17 Certain 9.0 nt 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o S.I 0.0 3 J.3 nt PerCent Doubtful 0.O r.f OJ Q.O 0.0 O.ff i.O 0.0 •0.0 II. g Total 0.0 J3.S o.o 4.1 19 0.9 3J.3 2H /oo. Number Certain to 0 p 0 20 Z 93 Doubtful D s- 0 P 0 0 9 0 0 Total 7 ? /r 0 p 0 2*0 2 7 /jiff Certain 32.$ 7.3 Q.O 00 DO i5.& / . £ 8-G 3-3 121 P Percent Doubtful 0- ° 3-f o.o O.o 0.0 o.o O.o O.o o.o 313 Total 3.1 S6.2. II .1 0 9 0 0 00 If.C (.6 8-6 Q.I loo. 154
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