Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
! E n i u t i o n :0- Balloon I-Astronomical 2-AircraCt 3-L.|til Pnenon. 4-Birib S-Cloods, Dust etc •Vlnsuffic kilo. 7-Psyctaiojical t-UnUnai K)t»e> Total TOTAL — Certain 24? 30 /J- 3 2l/0 -31. rr Numbet Doubtful: Tout /32 2£J\ /? JJL 33? ¥7? 4-74 lf-T 22 ?\ /o> f 246 44- # • & /£? Z/?9 Per Ceril Certain UL 12.1 JdL 0.5 AL to. 9 1,6 tJl JL1 72.1 Doublhil £.0 9.3 rs0.1 OS 0.3 Total 2J.1 ZI.6 2.3- 1.0 o.l &0\/p.9 &»\ Z.0 1.1 !M '?,7 Zff /OO. Nunber :ertain 5-4 JtL £ X 112=. /£ 35S Doubtful Sf 7 2 3 0 2. / /£2 Total /cf 12* /0 ft? f/2 '7 7&>WA/£ W/f/TS Per Cent Certain IS 3JL A? v 1 0 ^~~ 4L2.2 OJL J.I 0.7 H.I Doubtful 2.0 1.6 2.0 0.2 hi Al 0.0 O.I 0.0 0,) 7.V Total is- S:6 3.f C.U- 0.3 0.2 2-2. OS sr-l 0.1 X3.S AterAiu/i Nuabet >rt»n -£L _ 2 3 3 3f 76 21/ Doubtful 2.1 f O / O Total /s /?7 7 f 3? 7 76- tf J g 7 Pet Cent Certain 2S 03 3.9 ~oJ 0.1 0-1 1.7 O.U- 3S u 13.1 Doubtful 1.3 24 02 o-f0.0 O.0 0.1 0.0 0-2 Iks' Total 3,1 0,7 6.3 0.3 0.2 O.I A7 OS 3S 0.3 17.7 C OU>R #or^ ^r^rtrx? Nunber Certain 1L -JL / 62- 02 26 Z24 Doubtful /£ £> / 0 (2 Total U-0 2P V? 0 r / 62 3t Percent Certain I.I OS A3 O.0 A 2 0.1 2.1 0.3 2,1 1.2 10.1 Doubtful 0.7 A 7 aoO.I 0-0 o.a0.0 0.0 0.2. 2,1 Tot* J.V of 2.0 0.0 0.3 01 03 2.? /.if 12.3 Evaluation O-Biloon 1-Astnaoucal 2-Airciaft 3-Li(ht Pixnot. 4-Binb S-Clowls, Dust etc 6-lnjufIic fcfo. ?-PjydBtopal B-Unknon «t)»f Total Certain /s~ -J£. LL /o I Numtw Ooubtfull Total 22 / _ £ _ 2S- «c /r 2- / / i £?\/7 ^3- tZZl 7 •4? J6 fg\02) Pet Cent Certain 0.7 1.1 / . / CI ~c$ C2- 2.2 0.4 7.0 Doutttu DS I.I 1.0 0-0 0.0 ^~o7 0.0 Total f.Z 2.5 /.? OS 0.2 OM 0.1 0.3 2.2 0.7 IT/o.l /fez? Ptf UUlMVA /f£-£7 Numbn Certain A Z / O 0 IH 3 33>- 7 '35- Ooubtful ? /* 7- / 0 s> 2- Total 22 5 > J6 / rt3 33 r Pet Coil Certain uJZi 1.0 O.f 0.0 0.O 0.? 0.1 63 6.1 Doubtful 0.U 0>.7 0>,6 O.I 0.0 0.1 ao £>.O 0.0 a/ 2.0 Total /.D 2.Q 0-7- 0.0 O.I 0% o.l AS a# *mkm :«tain 3 U3 7 2. P O ? O r/ Doubtful 0 SS 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 / Total 3 /* 2 f 0 4- PetCent Certain 0.1 2A 0.3 Al 0\o _&0 A6 M 111 Doubtful AD ZS 0.3 O.0 OX> 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2,1 Total 0.1 AST 0.1 AO ov tv O?0 0.6 0.2 (,s L/G»r £ju>ni /CnuirJ/pr/ti/aivM NoBbet y Certain 2S 11. U- 0 0 21 0 2J /0% Doobttu Z f 22 _? / / 0> / 0 0> Total 22 34- 40 / / 2/ 7 ^ / 5- 152 P w C m t Ccttaa At 1,1 O.I 02 At AH AO ao 1,0 0.7- Doubtful 0.4 0.1/ 1.0 0J 0./ (7.1 0.0 o.l 0.0 0.0 Total /.D JS 1,1 ft-3 0.1 O.f 1.0 0-1 1.0 0.2 If t Evaluation 0-Balloon I-Astnnoarcal I?-Aircraft !3-Lit"t P t r n a . 4-Bifih S-Clouds, Oust e«c 6-lnsuHic kite. '-Psychological tVUnknoM ^ t h e r Total Ntmixt Certain / / 24 22- 5~ 0 /a 2- 3J- 3 az. Doubtfu / J~ / 2 U2. Total 2-4- 3* J£ 6 -2. / ^ 3/ r Pet Cent Certain 0.7 AL f.D 0.2 O.0 AE. 0JL 0.1 573 Doubtful C.U 0.6 0.1 0.1 0./ 0.0 01 0.0 0.1 •/.? Total / . ' 1.7 A 6 0? 0./ 0.' o.i o-l /.» 0.2 1.2 Nunbet Cntain 3 2$ c? 0 0> t 7 Percent Certain IJ no 0,1 0.1 0.0 0.0 M6.0 0.1 O.D 0.2 Ombtful ao 0,0 0.1 0.1 ao 0>.O 0,0 0.0 (20 0-0 fit Total 0-/ 0.0 0-2 0-2 0.C 0.0 0.0 0.0 t't 0.0 0.3 Evaluate* 0-BJlloon lAstronoaical 2-Aircraft 3-LijW PnemL 4-Brrrb 5-Clouds, Dust, etc 6-lnuttic. k k . 7-Pirctolopol S - l H n o w S-OB* T M Vjoifrr t>/r (j/jnM/! i//oi-£r Nraoet Certain 0 __L 0 0 £l LJL / c- 3 Ooubtful 0 c f 0 f 0 0 0 Total 0> / 0> / 0 £> O> / 0> T PetCmt Certain AO O.I 0.1 0.0 J2A 00 GO 0.0 0.1 0.0 Doubtful 0.0 OP of 0.0 At 9.0 no 0.0 ao 0.0 o.i Total 0-0 0.1 02 00 0.1 0.0 0.0 o.o 0>.l 0.1 O.Z (j/.DW/^6 OtfAy NlMKf pertain -10 0 0 0 0 0 _ / . 3 Doubtful / f 0 O 0 0 0 J- Total / / / / 0 7/ S Pet Cent Certain 0.1 0.0 0-1 0.0 00 O-o 0.0 01 00 Doubtful ao t-I ao 0./ 0.0 0.0 #0 $0 0.0 0.0 0./ Total O.( 0.f 0./ O.f ao 00 0.0 fit 0.0 ax. N u d w ;ert*n * • Doubtful Total Percent Certain Doubtful Total Nuabei Certain Doubtful Total Pet Cent CertM Doubtful Total 143
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