Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
A/i, Evaluation 0-Balloon lAstnnomical 2-Airtraft 3-LiIht Ptienc*. 4-BirHs 5-Cloudj, Dust, e l c 6-lnsiflit Wo. 7-PjydBlofical S-UnkMM »-Othet Total Number Ortun 2 L __d _£_ __£ $ 0 5 1 JJ Doubtful / 1 1 0 n 0 0 Q 0 0 s Total 3 % 0 0 0 s 0 5 1 17 Per Cent Certain /0.5 JA 0.0 0.0 CO 6.0 SCl O.C •2CI o.c 0-0 o-o (1-0 ; « •15.2 IS. 2 IDS Oj oJ o.O o.o 2C.3 IOO- Number Certain / 0 0 0 0 01 _ rtjn —1, 0 i a dL _J_ ii t Doubtful 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 X. Total 0 %. 1 0 0 0 0 o s 0 Per Cent Certain an u.% Q.I) O.C Q.O CO o.c . o.o fO.O Doutttul Q.Q /O.I H.I ^_.0.C o.c JLLJ CO c.o O-o fl.il Total 0.1 33M U-l U O.O 0.0 0.0 O.C sic 6.0 100. Number Certain D 0 T l G 0 _ i . 0 - r 3 Doubtful 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 \ 0 0 0 a 0 0 C 3 Per Cent Certain OJ J3-3 O.D o.o Jli 110.0 Doubtful 10 0.0 0.0 OJ) d-d OJ Q.O Q.0 o,o0.0 o.o Total Q.0 o.o 33,3 0,0 Q.0 0.C £6.7 0.0 o.O 0.0 iQQy 1 1 Evaluation O-Balloon l.Astronomical 2-Aircraft 3-Lirht Phenoo. 4-Bints 5-Clouds. Oust, etc 6-lnaiflic Into. 7-Psycliologiul B-UnknoM VOthcr Total Number Certain 7 0 r\»-/ c L 0 t Doubtful 0 Q 0 1 c D (1 0 1 Total ? 0 / 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 5" PerCent Certain L.C 7M-. e.t CO Doubtful) Total Q.Q 0.0 OH Q.0 HU 0.0 210 ?o.j\m L.J o.o •j c.o m cfi o.O no li.l/ 3J OJ 10.0 o.o mo. J~u/vr Number Certain 0 0^ 1 0 0 0 ~T 0 0 1 Doubtful Q j 0 0 0 0 0 0 t 0 0 Tolal 9 i i 0 c 0. 0 0 0 I 1 Percent Certain Q.O Ml ML ro.o M. rS.Q 0.0 CO 00 im Doubtful C.9 Q.O Q.O O.O Q.I O.O (l.Q o.o i,0 0.6 o.O Total 0.0 an Q.Q (?.«• C«i 1.6 Q.D m. J~oc-y Number :ertain 0 ( J_ Q 0 0 0 _A _j_ T Doubtful 0 ? 0 0 0 0 9 1 0 0 3 Total O 3 1 O 0 0 4yl 3 1 1 PerCent Certain u ILL li.l 1.0 Q.O Q.O Q.Q .m//•I UJ Doubtful op mo.o Q.O O.Q o.o 0.0 li.l OJ 0.0 •33,3 Total O.o 33-3 li.l C.Q o.c Q-P o.Q li.l n-i mo. Number Certain / 0 / 1 0 Q S 0 7 / /s Doubtful 1 c o / o o Q O ft o 2 Total 7 0 /3 0 0 3 o 7 / 17 PerCent Certain Mr ILL ILL 0.Q JtLl 9S.7 Doubtful S.9 Q.O 0.0 *7 0-0 0.Q 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 II. g Total II. B 0.0 S'l '7-7 CO 0,0 n.i Q.O fl-7 Ho. Evaluation O-Balloon 1-Astrenoaical 2-Airaaft 3-Ligtit Ptienoa. 4-Birds 5-Clouds. Dust, etc 6-lnvjftic. Info. 7-Piycho logical 8-Unkno«n 9-Other Total Number Certain / _ / . 0 0 0 0 8 -7 n.i S-f o.O 0 C o.o II.9 o.O Hi i 11.2 ICO. Number Certain / L f 0 __£ 0 r 0 1 L Doubtful 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 • o 0 0 3 Total / 7 6 0 0 Q 9. C ?• / PerCent Certain K.Q MMA CO Q.O Q.Q. o.c 37.5 H-7 Doubtful o.o M 9. 3 0.0 o.O CO (1-0 0.0 O.o c.o /2.S Total 1.1 no O.c 0.0 r>.Q 0.0 • 0,0 V-5 H.I ml Number Certain 0 T 1 o JL JL 1 JL 0 <3 II Doubtful / 4 0 0 0 o 0 0 Q 0 Total / n % 0 0 o / o 0 o Pel Cent Certain 0-0 SCO /S-6 AJL - M J 0-0 j£_ O-Q Doubtful 6-1 X.o 0.0 OJ OJ 0.0 0.0 ' 0,0 0.0 o.o 31.2 Total C2 n.o 124 Q.Q O.c 0-0 6-3 Q.O CO 0.0 I0Q. Number Certain / 1 0 0 0 1 J _ /0 10 Doubtful O 1 o 0 0 A o 0 O 0 1 Total / 0 0 Ci 1 1 1 0 II PerCent Certain "77 0.0 0.0 0.0 ?./' 1.1 1.1 CO 70.7 Doubtful Q.0 1-1 0J O.O c.o o.c O.O 0.0 0.0 0.0 ?•/ Total 21.} u-<t O.C Q.O Q.O 1-1 1-1 1-1 OJ 100. 121
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