Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
“Otis”1 page
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Evaluation
0-Balloon
lAlllOTOBIdl
7-Airctitl
3-Li£ti| Pfienom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuttic kite.
7-Piydnlo|ial
t-Ur*MMi
Mttiw
Total
Numbet
Certan
0
1
,H
0
0
0
0
0
3
I
IO
Doubtful
/
1
0
0
0
0
0
a
0
9
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/
d
5
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
Pet Cent
Certain
0.0
l/.l
21.1
0-0
0-0
QJL
00
o.O
IC-I
SS.C
Doubtful, Total
S.I,
Ml
o.o
0. Q
Q.O
2 7«
Q.Q
0.6
0-0
iT^i 6.6
o.o\ o.C
O.o
o.O
/t-7
/no.
Number ,
Certain
2
2
1
Q
0
/
0
!
/
B
Doubtful
Q
Q
Q
0
0
0
0
0
0
(*
Total
7
9
1
lO.S
o.f
0.0
to
Off
is-8
o.o
100.
Evaluatnn
0-Balloon
l-Astionooiul
2-Aircrift
3-Lijht Phenon.
4-BirH
9-9
/:?•?
i.%
iff.
Au& (J5T
Number
Certain
9
1
1
0
0
0
2
2
/
0
7
Doubtfu
Q
3 0
2
0
0
9
Q
o
o
• o
32
Total
O
31
3
0
0
9
2
I
1
0
3?
Pet Cent
Certain
0.0
2.C
7-t
0.0
o.o
o.f
S.I
u
z<>0.9
111
Doubtful
0-0
S.I
O.o
o.o
e.t
0.0
o.o
0,0
o.o
fo.J
Total
OJ
V.5
7 7
O.O
tl-0
CO
S.I
5-1
i-0
100.
1
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astromiiiiul
2-Aircrafl
3-Lirnt Pfienon.
t-Buds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuffic Info.
7-PsychologicaJ
D-Unknowi
Wither
Total
Number
Certain
/
0
0
n
0
2
{)
0
0
3
Doubtfu
• 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ToUl
;
0
0
0
0
0
•2
9
d
0
3-
Pet Cent
Certain
3.3.3
8.9
CO
0.0
O.f
d.0
CC.7
Q.f
0.0
Q.O
lOO-Q
Doubtfu
0.0
9.0
(?•(?
0.0
o-o
o.o
0.0
0.0
9.0
Total
33.3
Q.O
OP
Q.fl
0.0
0.0
0.0
1$
Number
Certain
0
1
1
0
0
0
2.
0
I
6
S
Doubtful
0
J
/
•o
0
0
0
0
0
0
H
Total
0
9
%
9
0
0
X
g
i
0
f
Pet Cent
Certain
0-0
ILL
II-1
O.o
0.0
0.6
22.2
O.o
ll-l
0.0
550
Doubtful
0.0
33-3
II-1
Off
0.0
0,0
0-0
o.o
CO
Total
6.0
0,2-2
OJO
00
322
0.0
III
O.f
too-
Nuflter
Certain
Q
if
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
Q
Doubtful
/
7
0
0
&
0
0
0
0
1
Total
/
/
Q
0
0
0
0
0
15
Pet Cent .
Certain
0-9
ZL1
1A
9.0
0.0
o.o
o.o
o.o
/ 3 3
O.O
qt.o
Doubtful
i l
c-i
9-t
o.o
(10
0.0
1.0
0.0
o.o
60.0
Total
L-7
73.H
Cl
o.o
o.o
O-O
0.0
00
13-3
00
100.
Number
Certain
/
2
2
0
6
0
0
3
2
1L
Doubtfu
0
if
Q
0
0
0
d
0
0
0
Total
/
C
%
6
0
0
1
0
3
/5
Per Cent
Certain
i . l
/3-3
/J-3
CO
O.O
0.0
(o.l
0.0
Zo.o
13."$
73-3
Doubtful
o.a
U.I
0.0
0-0
Q-0
Q.O
O-O
Of
O.o
o.o
Hi
Total
(-7
19-0
133
0.0
0.0
0-0
(,l
'0-0
i9-f
I1Q
104.
119 Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.