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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

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This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

Evaluation
0. Balloon
1-AltKmMICal
'2-*itajfl
3-lijM Ptienom.
4-Bnds
S-ClowlJ. Dust, etc.
6-lnsuftic kito.
7-Psydnloral
t-Unkno«n
Mtnei
Tolil
. 7AA/UA ff Y
Certain'
_ 1
2 /
_^J

3 O.O
Total
 r t » n
'S
JA_
0
_ 1
0
IS
J
11
_±_
•7)
Doubtful
2
/2
7
0
0
.1
0
0
0
/ t
Total
to
27
ff
0
3
/
/ *
e
11
/ f
'07
CM
Percent
Certain
75"
IU
111
OJL
Id
0.0
It.o
o.o
a.?
-2_7l
U.t
Doubtful
If
II. 1
(,-S
0.0
0.0
o.f
Q.O
00
o.o
ni
3 3-t
Total
2 5 - 2
ni
00
1-9
11
IU
O.o
lt-1
tf.o
100.
Nmber
Certain
7
%
__T
~^P
0
Ql
7
12-
2
112
Doubtful
3
3
7
0
I
0
0
0
0
0
If
Total
19
2t
31
1
•>
•0
HI
1
tl.
It3
P a Cat
Certain
19.1
It-7
o.o
if. 8
JJL
29.6
i-H
10.1
Doubtful
Z-l
HI
O.O
0-1
•0.0
00
O.o
Q.t
Q.O
I f
Tot«
7-0
10.i
?/. /
0-1
D.O
if.f
If
49.6
I-H-
Iff.
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-Astranomical
2-Aucrafl
3-Lictit Ptienoa.
••Birds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuftic Info.
7-Psychological
B-Unknonn
W i d e r
Total
/ / ST f
Numbef
Certain
19
19
3
0
7
2 2
0
'13
7
Doubtful
J
8
IS
i
0
0
Q
0
2
If
Total
73
31
5
2
1
2?
0
XI
f
ISO
PeiCent
Certain
HO
15.1
13.0
Q.O
9.0
/•I
M.I
Q.O
/S.3
t.l
m
Doubtfu
3.}
5.3
10-"
1-1
/ 3
0.0
0.0
0.6
o.o
hi
02.1
Total
IS. 3
70C
72.0
1 I
11
/ 3
If .7
0.0
(J.O
J~l/A/£~.
Number
Certain
Jo
/
0
0
0 3
c
H.
is?
Doubtful
6
2f
13
/
0
9
0
0
0
42
Total
35
2.
4
21
i
3$
8
201
Percent
Certain
til
lt-1
o.S
o.o
0.0
II-f
3.0
ip.f
Ill
Doubtful
10
lO.if-
i-5
O.S
o.o
0.0
0 0
o.o
0.0
QS
20-f
Total
17-f
128
lit-
10
0.0
Q.O
fl*
3.0
If.9
i.o
no
Tut p
Number
lertain
lot
104
JJL
-3
11
9
i¥i
21
S8S
Doubtful
98
f¥
»l
¥
3
1
0
9
0
i
/fO
Total
"/0
191
(,
1
81
17
/ft
77'5
Percent
Certain
II-I
nt
/ 3 . 7
1.9
o.t-
0-1
10-5
/ • 3
18.8
3.1
7S.S
Doubtful
£. 2
£1
10.5
O.S
o.t
01
0.0
1.0
o.o
O.I
Total
191
in
1.3
•8
.X
It-i
I-1
18.8
3.2,
in.
AvtesT
Nmber
Certain
If
Lf 7
H8
1
0
0
tfX
1 0
87
It
21L
Douutfu
¥7
C if
18
7
0
1
0
1
0
$
IS8
Total
SI
II 1
I t
0
1
v-x
(1
8?
l(.
¥¥f
PerCnt
Certain
-££
MZ
0.0
-ML
-JJL
DoubtW
7.4-
/U3
S.f
u
0.2
00
D.3.
0,0
/,!
Total
/.f.l
19,2
7,1
0.0
p. 2
'9>H
2A
Iff
/CO.
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-Astnnomical
2-Airciaft
J-Lilfit Ptienoa.
4-Binh
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
&.|nsutfic kilo.
7-Psvtholo|ical
5-Unknoan
S-Ottlet
Total
Srrrerrt #£-*>
Number
Certain
6
10
7J_
1
1
0
20
3
£
ni
Doubtful
13
II
31
1
7
1
0
0
0
3
63
Total
'f
V /
3
3
1
76
3
//
if I
Per Cent
Certain
J.I
6&
O.S
-Ml
-01
fO.k
24-7
f7.Z
Doubtfu
6.0
f-7
Ml
/P
1-0
pi
0,0
6.0
09
{(/
Total
1.1
/•?
/.r
/•(>
/##.
Number
Certain
8
12-
1 e
I
0
10
J
3/
3
f 3
Doubtful
' 2
If
I f
H
1
0
0
0
1
5¥
Total
20
2-5
¥I
10
/
3/
M7
Percent
Certain
-££.
Iff
61
0.7
/jj.
0.0
6-9
0-7
Ml
ZD
Doubtful
1.2.
/*.?
/0.Z-
t7
/f
t>-7
P-e
M>
P.Q
0.7
317
Total
/3.6
Jl.?
(7,0
3.V
0-7
6$
0-7
Ml
2.7
Number
Certain
J_
M
I
t
0
7
/
23
¥
11
Doubtful
/ ?
>?
1
0
7
•0
0
0
0
It
Total
17
If
If
0
2
7
/
Percent
Certain
20.$
f-*
AS
0.b
0-0
33
Doubtful
/D.O
M
O.D
1-7
/}.o
D.0
P-P
34X
total
/ ^ 2
3*1
/S79
S.3
fit)
1-7
if-t
3.3
Number
Certain
0
2?
1
0
0
q
8
86>
Doubtful
0
Z 3
12
0
0
a
0
0
ti
Total
52.
I
0
0
r2
23
S
ITt
Percent
Certain
-JL2
0.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
iS
18.I
63
ai
Doubtful
t-1
18:1
0.0
00
0-0
o.o
Q.O
0.0
O-O
32.3
Total
1-¥
10.1
0-8
0.0
0.0
7.7
Iff
19-1
(> .3
ISO.
116

Cases discussed

About this file

Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.