Documents / Official release
This is a 2023 draft research paper by Richard M. Medina and Simon Brewer of the University of Utah and Sean M. Kirkpatrick of the Department of Defense, prepared for journal submission and released in full by AARO in 2025. It analyzes 98,724 NUFORC public sighting reports from 2001 to 2020 by county with a Bayesian model. It finds that more light pollution and tree canopy mean fewer sightings, while more air traffic and military area mean more. Cloud cover showed no relationship.
025 model, for all variables in the model are well under 2. VIF values are traditionally accepted if they are under 5. Results The hotspot analysis shows a strong trend, with many more standardized sightings reported in the Western U.S. and in the very Northeast, along with some isolated areas including the tri-state border area of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, surrounding Evansville, Indiana, and the area surrounding Washington D.C. Smaller clusters of low sightings are found through the central plains and in the southeast. Recall that this number does not represent sightings, but sightings per 10,000 in each conterminous U.S. county. Figure 3 Hotspot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) of Reported Sightings from 2001-2020 Table 1 shows the results of the Bayesian small area model, based on the posterior probability distribution of each coefficient. As the model is based on log-transformed relativePage determined to be Unclassified Reviewed by Chief of Staff, AARO IAW FY24 NDAA, Section 1841 (a)(1)(C) Date: 02/06/2025
Official release, from the nara collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 16 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.