Documents / Official release
This is a 2023 draft research paper by Richard M. Medina and Simon Brewer of the University of Utah and Sean M. Kirkpatrick of the Department of Defense, prepared for journal submission and released in full by AARO in 2025. It analyzes 98,724 NUFORC public sighting reports from 2001 to 2020 by county with a Bayesian model. It finds that more light pollution and tree canopy mean fewer sightings, while more air traffic and military area mean more. Cloud cover showed no relationship.
“Disclosure Project”1 page
025 Much of the research on UAPs has relied on firsthand accounts, psychological explanations, or specific events, which limits the systematic analysis of large area patterns (e.g., see Zimmer, 1984; Zimmer, 1985; Spanos et al., 1993; Salisbury, 1974). Data availability for large studies has been a longstanding issue, and the few studies that exist focus on smaller scale patterns and trends. The most likely explanation for a portion of UAP sightings is natural phenomena. For example, the planet Venus is the brightest planet and is often mistaken for a UAP. At times, it is seen close to the horizon and can shine through the trees to produce an irregular pattern of light and reflection (Phillips, 2004). The second most likely explanation is from human-made aircraft (Ramet, 1998). Human-made aircraft includes various objects in the sky, such as weather balloons, as originally explained to be responsible for the Roswell, New Mexico Case in 1947, arguably the most popular UAP case in U.S. history. Follow up disclosures by the Air Force describe the activity responsible for the event as being a then classified, multi-balloon project intended to detect Soviet nuclear tests (Weaver and McAndrew, 1995). Current explanations contributing to UAP sightings include the exponential growth in satellite and spacecraft launches and orbiters (e.g. SpaceX Starlink), as well as an increased drone activity. The use of modern technology, including satellites and drones may have led to increased incidents of these being mistakenly reported as UAPs. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Preliminary Assessment on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (2021) and the most recent DNI Report on UAP (2022) lists these five potential explanatory categories for UAP sightings – airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, U.S. government or industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and other (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). An early article attempting to explain an increase in sightings in Utah’s Uinta Basin uses airborne insect infestation as a correlate. The selected insects showed patterns of “brilliant colored flares or brushes of bluish white light from various external points on their bodies” during electric field stimulation (Callahan and Mankin, 1978, p. 3356). The artificially generated electric field was meant to resemble a stormy weather-related phenomenon called St. Elmo’s Fire, where static electricity causes patterns of visible colored light. Interestingly, this research was refuted soon after publication and described as “somewhat unrealistic” (Tha Paw, 1979), though the authors did respond with a rebuttal (Callahan, 1979; Mankin, 1979). Other historical research suggests connections between seismic activity and UFO sightings. Persinger and Derr (1985) recall the tectonic strain hypothesis (Persinger, 1976; Persinger and Lafreniere, 1977; Persinger, 1984) – “that a substantial portion of UFO phenomena are generated by strain fields; they are evoked by the changing stresses within the earth’s crust” (Persinger and Derr, 1985). Further, research that connects seismic activity with solar activity may be a better predictor than just with seismic activity alone; also that considering seismic intensity leads to a stronger correlation with UFO sightings than with just seismic counts (Persinger, 1981).Page determined to be Unclassified Reviewed by Chief of Staff, AARO IAW FY24 NDAA, Section 1841 (a)(1)(C) Date: 02/06/2025
Official release, from the nara collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 16 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.