Documents / Official release

Office of the Secretary of Defense: 25_Sky_View_Final_Draft

Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense. · 2023 · 16 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is a 2023 draft research paper by Richard M. Medina and Simon Brewer of the University of Utah and Sean M. Kirkpatrick of the Department of Defense, prepared for journal submission and released in full by AARO in 2025. It analyzes 98,724 NUFORC public sighting reports from 2001 to 2020 by county with a Bayesian model. It finds that more light pollution and tree canopy mean fewer sightings, while more air traffic and military area mean more. Cloud cover showed no relationship.

  • p. 3 …1984; Zimmer, 1985; Spanos et al., 1993; Salisbury, 1974). Data availability for large studies has been…
  • p. 16 …and Its Applications, 4(March), 395-421. Salisbury, F. B. (1974) The Utah UFO Display: A…
025
Getis, A. and Ord, J. K. (1992) The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics.
Geographical Analysis 24(3).
Goodchild, M. F. (2007). Citizens as sensors: the world of volunteered geography. GeoJournal,
69(4), 211-221.
Goodchild, M. F. and Li, L. (2012) Assuring the Quality of Volunteered Geographic
Information. Spatial Statistics 1:110-120.
Kunda, Z. (1990) The Case for Motivated Reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 108(3): 480-498.
Leong, Y. C., Hughes, B. L., Wang, Y., and Zaki, J. (2019) Neurocomputational Mechanisms
Underlying Motivated Seeing. Nature Human Behavior 3: 962-973.
Mankin, R. W. (1979) Insects as Unidentified Flying Objects: Author’s Reply to Comments.
Applied Optics 18(16): 2725-2726.
McElreath, R. (2018) Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in r and stan.
Chapman; Hall/CRC.
Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (2022) Tree Canopy.
https://www.mrlc.gov/data/type/tree-canopy.
National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) (2023a) The National UFO Reporting Center
Online Database. https://nuforc.org/databank/.
National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) (2023b) The National UFO Reporting Center –
Information and Policies. https://nuforc.org/about-us/.
National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) (2023c) File a Report. https://nuforc.org/file-a-
report/.
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2021) Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified
Aerial Phenomena. 25 June.
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-
20210625.pdf.
Ord, J.K. and Getis, A. (1995) Local Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics: Distributional Issues and
an Application. Geographical Analysis 27(4).
Persinger, M. A. (1976) Transient Geophysical Bases for Ostensible UFO-Related Phenomena
and Associated Verbal Behavior? Perceptual and Motor Skills 43: 215-221.
Persinger, M. A. (1981) Geophysical Variables and Behavior: III. Prediction of UFO Reports by
Geomagnetic and Seismic Activity. Perceptual and Motor Skills 53: 115-122.
Persinger, M. A. (1984) Prediction of Historical and Contemporary Luminosity (UFO) Reports
by Seismic Variables Within Western Europe. Experiensia 40: 676-681.
Persinger, M. A., and Derr, J. S. (1985) Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XXIII. Relations
Between UFO Reports Within the Uinta Basin and Local Seismicity. Perceptual and Motor
Skills 60: 143-152.
Persinger, M. A. and Lafreniere, G. F. (1977) Space-Time Transients and Unusual Events.
Chicago: Nelson-Hall.
Phillips, T. (2004) UFO Planet. NASA, 3 May.
https://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/watchtheskies/03may_maximumvenus.html.Page determined to be Unclassified
Reviewed by Chief of Staff, AARO
IAW FY24 NDAA, Section 1841 (a)(1)(C)
Date: 02/06/2025

Cases discussed

About this file

Official release, from the nara collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 16 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.