FAB CENDOC Envelope 09 (1978)

Read from the scan by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word.

- out and swum for land if it was possible. "Young Fred taught here on Friday nights and often helped out during the week-I don't know how I'm going to replace him. 3) Don Sowman, chief flying instructor at Southern Air Services said: "he seemed a normal bloke and an average pilot."

4) Wing-Commander Colin Chaliss of the Sale RAAF said, "we have files on unusual aerial sightings, but they are not classified and Mr. Valentich did not see them."

5) If the event was a hoax based on Fred Valentich's UFO enthusiasm, he would have known better than to keep describing the UFO's appearance in different ways:

7. 06. 44—"four bright lights"

7. 09:42—"long shape"

7:10:19—"shiny, metallic object with a green light". If this event was planned in advance, why would he choose to weaken his own story with inconsistencies?

## Counter-Argument in Favor:

If Fred Valentich was really "common sense on legs," why did he fly further out to sea with a failing engine when the normal thing would have been to turn back to Cape Otway? He is estimated to have been only 12 nautical miles out. Cape Otway was much further away. Why did he overlook securing the landing lights at King Island when it would be impossible to land without them?

## II. VALENTICH'S FATHER WAS IN ON THE DEAL, ANNOUNCING TO THE PRESS THAT ALIENS HAD KIDNAPPED HIS SON TO REINFORCE THE HOAX.

## Arguments in Favor:

1) Immediately after the disappearance, Guido Valentich told the press that he believed his son is alive and being held by people from another planet. "I have a very strong feeling that my son is still alive and is being held by someone from another world. The failure to find any sign of my son or his plane strengthens my belief that he has been taken by some strange people for some reason or another. I have no idea why they would want to take my son, but strange things do happen." Note that this is similar to the Travis Walton abduction episode, where Walton's mother exhibited calmness during the days of Travis's absence. She said that Travis told her earlier that if he was ever taken by a UFO, she was not to worry, that he would be brought back safely.

## Arguments Against:

1) Mr. Valentich's overt statements are clearly a grief reaction. Not mentioned in the quotes above was his early statement that he would rather believe that Fred was alive on a spaceship "than them finding wreckage of the plane." Another press quote: "I'd rather believe my son was alive on some other planet than dead at the bottom of the sea."

2) That these conclusions do not reflect a pre-arranged plan is further reflected in the dwindling hope displayed by Guido Valentich. His earliest speculation about extraterrestrial abduction envisioned a quick return for his son: "They may want to hold him for a week or so before returning him." By October 29, this duration lengthened: "I believe he was sucked up into the air by a UFO and then forced back to earth somewhere—perhaps in Central Australia. Finally, five weeks later, Mr. Valentich was saying "Probably we will never see Freddy again . . . we hope, perhaps in ten or twenty years, we might see him again."

## III. VALENTICH NEVER FLEW BEYOND CAPE OTWAY. HE SECRETLY LANDED ON THE GROUND. BECAUSE NO ONE TRACKED OR SAW OR HEARD HIS FLIGHT OVER CAPE OTWAY.

## Arguments in Favor:

11 We only have Valentich's word that he pursued his pre-filed flight plan. He was not tracked on radar during the emergency even though the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) did a radar scan when Valentich asked for identification of the UFO.

## Arguments Against:

1) The official explanation for the Cessna's failure to show up on radar was that it was flying too low. While the DCA long-range radar has a 160-nautical mile range, and Valentich was only 95 miles out, he was flying at 4500 feet, and the radar coverage that far out started at 6000 feet up. If the pilot's estimate of height for the UFO was right (1000 feet higher still), it would also fail to show up.

## Counter-Argument in Favor:

Then why did the search planes show up in that area on radar when they were only flying at 152 meters (500 feet) altitude?

## Counter-Argument in Favor:

The radar conditions are variable; sometimes King Island itself, only 215 meters above sea level, shows up on the screen. False targets were showing up Oct. 21 from a temperature inversion. No photographic record of the scope was made. The RAAF at Laverton was no help here, either, as they also rely on OCA Melbourne radar for such tracking. Once the Cessna left Melbourne's controlled airspace, it was not specifically tracked.

## Arguments in Favor (resumed):

2) No one witnessed the plane from the ground, despite requests for such information by the DCA. The flight plan called for Valentich to fly right over the Cape Otway lighthouse; yet despite the clear weather, the lighthouse keeper never heard a plane at 7 PM. Bass Strait fishermen neither saw nor heard anything. Yet in the 1972 Tiger Moth disappearance, 22 accounts were secured from passerby ground witnesses along the Tasmanian coast.

3) There is an unconfirmed report that Victorian police received a report that a light plane made a mysterious late-night landing in the western district, not far from Cape Otway, at about the same time.

4) Valentich did not ask the King Island airport to illuminate the runway before leaving Moorabbin. This was done by Melbourne Flight Service once the UFO got reported. Nor can the landing lights be switched or automatically by radio signals from approaching aircraft. Normal procedures calls for the pilot to arrange this before leaving. Furthermore, press accounts suggest that Valentich never arranged more than a one-way flight path. It sounds like he never expected to make it there!

5) Police have found no fishermen on King Island who had arranged to sell Valentich crayfish . . the stated reason for the flight.

6) Valentich's long-range Cessna was carrying 300 litres of fuel. Consuming fuel at a rate of 45 litres/ hour, he could have kept on flying for a total of 6 hours at a maximum speed of 130 knots for a total flying range of 1040 km. The planned trip was only supposed to last one hour and nine minutes. Why all the extra fuel? Did he really fly somewhere else and that's why he didn't show up on radar when Cape Otway was checked?

Total Flight Range Capability