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Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation

Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.

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“The Advance”6 pages

  • p. 2 …a series of advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Defense Intelligence Agency, gb…
  • p. 4 …in the universe, how far from us they exist, and possibly how much more advanced than…
  • p. 7 …that the galaxy is pulsing and humming with advanced societies, and, therefore, that the nearest such…
  • p. 8 …Perhaps the evolution of advanced life forms is improbable. Or it may be that complex life…
  • p. 9 …On the other hand, there must be quite different pathways to an advanced civilization of specified…
  • p. 11 …In other words, we have transformed the classical and simplistic Drake equation (7) into an advanced…
11 March 2010
UNCLASSIFIED/ /f81il 8ffll1Ak Wfili IH.k\f
Defense
Intelligence
Reference
Document
Acquisition Threat Support
ICOD: 1 December 2009
An Introduction to the
Statistical Drake Equation
UNCLASSIFIED/ ,'P8R:: 8PPI@Itllt 1!!191!! 8HLV

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