Documents / Report
This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.
“Carl Sagan”3 pages
UNCLASSIFIED//FQA: QFFIQIJltk WliEii SU.bit equation more and more new scientific information as soon as it becomes available. In the long run, the Stati~tical Drake equation might just become a huge computer code, growing up in size and especially in the depth of the ~cientific information it contained. It would thu~ be Humanity's first "Encyclopaedia Galactica," Unfortunately, to extend the Drake equation to Statistics, it \Vas necessary to use a mathematical apparatu~ that is more sophisticated than just the simple product of seven numhers. When this author had !he honour and privilege to present his results at the SETI Institute on April I 1117, 2008, in front of an audience also including Professor Frank Drake, he felt he had to add these words: "My apologies, Frank, for disrupting the beautiful simplicity of your equation," ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is grateful to Dr~. Jill Tarter, Paul Davies, Seth Shostak, Doug Vakoch, Tom Pierson, Carol Oliver. Paul Shuch and Kathryn Denning for attending his first presentation ever about these topics at the '·Beyond" Center of the University of Arizona at Phoenix on February 8th , 2008. He also would like to thank Dan Werthimer and his School of SETI young experts for keeping alive the 54 interplay between experimental and theoretical SETI. But the greatest ·'thanks" goes of course to the Teacher to all of us: Professor hank D. Drake, whose equation opened a ne\v way of thinking about the past and the future of Humans in the Galaxy. REFERENCES [ I J http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake equation [2J http://cn.wikipcdia.org/wiki/S ETI [3 j http://en. wikipedia.on::/wiki/ Aqrobiolol?:v [4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank Drake [.5] Athanasios Papoulis and S. Lnnikrishna Pillai, "Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes'", Fourth Edition, Tata McGraw-Hill. New Delhi, 2002. ISBN 0-07-048658-1. [6 j http://en.wikipedia.org/w1k1/Gamma distribution 171 hup://en.wikipcdia.orn/wiki/Ccntral limil theme m [81 hup ://en. wi k ipcd i,1. om/ \Vi ki/C umu Ianl~ [91 hup://en. wikipcdia.orn/\viki/l\1cdian [l0].kffrey Bennett and Seth Shustak, "Life in the Universe", Sernnd Edition. Pearson - Addi~(m- Weslcy, San Francisco, 2007. ISBN 0-8053- 4753-4. Sec in particular page 404. UNCLASSIFIED/ /P81t 8PPll!llltl! l!l!ili 8111!'/
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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.