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This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.
“The Advance”6 pages
UNCLASSIFIED// FOR bi ICIAE "31!! 8HLY I 1. Introduction I I 2. Step 1: Letting each factor become a random 2.1. Step 2: Introducing logs to change the product into a I 2.2. Step 3: The transformation law of random variab1es. I I 3. Step 4: Assuming the easiest input distribution for each D,: the uniform distribution. 3.1. Step 5: A numerical example of the Statistical Drake equation with uniform distributions for the Drake random variables D,. I 3.2. Step 6: Computing the logs of the 7 uniform1y distributed Drake random variables D,. 3.3. Step 7: Finding the probability density function of N, but only numerically not analytica11y. I DEAD END! I 4. The Central Limit Theorem (CL T) of Statistics. ,. LDGNDRMAL distribution as the probability distribution of the number N of communicating ExtraTerrestrial Civilizations in the Galaxy, •- Comparing the CL T results with the Non-CLT results, and discarding the Non-CLT approach. ,. DISTANCE to the nearest ExtraTerrestrial Civilization as a probability distribution (Paul Davies dubbed that the Maccone distribution). ,., Classical, non-probabilistic derivation of the Distance to the nearest ET Civilization. ,., Probabilistic derivation of probability density function for nearest ET Civilization Distance. I ,., Statistical properties of the distribution. ,.• Numerical example of the distribution. ,. DATA ENRICHMENT PRINCIPLE as the best CL T consequence upon the Drake equation: i!..!11". number of factors allowed for. 31 UNCLASSIFIED/,'Fett errtCIAE OSI! OHEI
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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.