Condign volumes 1 to 3

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# UNCLASSIFIED

UK RESTRICTED

# POTENTIAL REASONS FOR HIGHER DENSITIES OF UAP SIGHTINGS

## INTRODUCTION

1. In the current database analysis it has been important not to misinterpret the reasons for UAP occurrences, by drawing the wrong inferences from a statistical analysis. One of the first analyses was to ascertain the density of UAP sightings across UK aerospace to look for high incidence areas - in the hope/possibility that this may shed some light on the nature of the phenomena, lead to more focused scientific work and possibly to obtain more data when sightings occur (e.g. correlation of visual sightings with coincident radar coverage). As the unknown is being investigated, preconceptions are no part of initial assumptions.

2. Taking the extreme case - that UAP are more than natural occurrences - it cannot be assumed that locations where the objects occur will necessarily be of obvious importance to humans. Further, it cannot be ruled out that these appearances may only take place at certain intervals and be entirely unrelated to our concept of time. They may even be related to the relative disposition of the gravitational fields of various bodies in space, or even of other fields of which we may have scant or even no knowledge at present.

3. On the initial assumption that the phenomena of a UAP sighting can occur anywhere, then the presence of larger numbers of sightings in a particular part of UK will be dependent, at first sight, upon:

(a) The population density

(b) The weather/visibility

(c) The time of year

(d) The time of day

(e) The location

(f) Availability and competence of witnesses.

## POPULATION DENSITY

4. It would seem logical that if there are a greater number of potential observers, and on the assumption of an equal probability (i.e. equal distribution of UAPs in the UK air space), then sighting clusters could be expected to occur in more highly populated areas. However, in areas of greater population there is also a much higher night-time background lighting level, making observation of flying objects much less likely to be seen (as evidenced by astronomical observatories, which have been forced to move away from lit-up areas). The contrary situation is that more sparsely populated areas have fewer potential observers, but little or no interference from ambient surface lighting. It is thus difficult to immediately connect the number of potential observers available in a geographical area against the likelihood of expectation of UAP sightings, since other factors are present. As an initial guide Table 1 shows the population distribution for the UKADR $ ^{1} $

## WEATHER/VISIBILITY

5. A brief analysis to determine the relative prevalence of sightings in cyclonic and anti-cyclonic conditions has been made. There was no clear evidence of correlation with temperature, dew point, wind, etc. However, the continued prevalence of UAP reports whether thunder (i.e. Lightning, as a prerequisite - see Working Paper No 2) was present or not on the same day in the same area was of particular importance in an attempt to discover whether atmospheric conditions are key to the formation of UAP. However, adequately clear visibility for viewing low and