Condign volumes 1 to 3

Read from the scan by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word.

# UNCLASSIFIED UK RESTRICTED

## CORRELATION OF UAP EVENTS WITH SEISMIC ACTIVITY

6. On the assumption that major luminous events are also connected with seismic activity, it should be possible to correlate this coincidence if enough UAP event evidence is available to compare with seismic records. The rationale for supposing that seismic (structural) strain causes luminescences is described (Working Paper No.10). If this were a reliable guide then the onset of a set of UAP events could possibly be predicted! There are, however, several problem areas:

The number of UAP events which are clearly luminous/earthlightrelated, must first be separated from all other UAP sightings.

The UK land-mass suffers serious seismic activity only at a low rate but hundreds of low-magnitude events occur which must influence rock-stress conditions from day to day.

The UK distribution of probable 'earthlights' cannot be expected to be evenly spread because of the variability of the geological structure and sporadic reporting; as many of the rocky areas of the UK are in sparsely populated areas.

7. Persinger $ ^{[3]} $ has analysed luminosity events across Europe (Six nations) using reports taken over a 100 year period (1820-1920), where it is shown that the years of peak earthquake activity were also the same years of maximum UFO reporting. While this type of analysis could be made for the period for which the Department hold UAP reports (1967-1997), some of the early reports are limited in number and sparse in detail, and a more realistic approach is to take a ten year sample (1987-1997), where the statistical value will be higher. Distinct UAP-Earthquake to Fault-line

links were found with UAP, in a French investigation as long ago as 1960. It has already been established elsewhere in this study that UAP events may be due to many different effects, no possible cause must be ignored.

## TECTONIC ELEMENTS OF THE UK

8. As an aid to possible future analysis of UAP events, the UK earth-fault system has been briefly investigated. The most useful reference for this purpose is at [4]. A full database should enable UAP location correlations to be made with this fault map if seismic activity is the cause. It is assumed that if earthlights are formed at or near fault positions they may travel some distance (e.g. 10km or more) before dissipating. Under some circumstances (e.g. attachment to a charged body such as an aircraft), they may travel much further, depending on air target velocity.

9. The total annual release of energy in the world's earthquakes corresponds to up to $ 1 0^{6} \mathrm{k W} $ and although the largest earthquakes account for most of the seismic release it is assessed that $ \sim 2 0, 0 0 0 $ small quakes occur. A moderate earthquake generates $ \sim 1 0^{5} $ watts per square metre and a fault rupture $ \sim 1 0^{1 4} $ watts. No trigger mechanism has been discovered to predict earthquakes reliably (in which case this might also act as a warning for expected UAP reports due to earthlights (see Working Paper No.10)) Many events exhibit the property of 'dilantancy', for example, (i.e. an increase in volume during deformation). This, in turn, causes an increase in frictional forces and a change in resistivity/electrical conductivity, which, in turn, must affect the production of early, but small, seismic movements (said to be detected by animals in advance of human detection systems/instruments and a precursor to earthlights).