Condign volumes 1 to 3

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# UNCLASSIFIED

UK RESTRICTED

## SUNSPOT, AURORA AND SEISMIC CORRELATION

1. Solar Cycle At the commencement of the UAP study it was recognised that the UAP enigma, which has apparently been present in some form for recorded history, might be due to a simple natural explanation. However, it is only in the last 50 years that an increasingly large number of UAP sightings have been recorded. While it was recognised that the phenomenon may eventually be shown to be due to a combination of natural events, rather than a single cause, the solar cycle is one of the more obvious candidates for investigation. The frequency of occurrence of UAP reports against known earth phenomena, such as solar activity, has been checked. However, as this transient solar phenomenon repeats in an eleven (~11.4) year cycle, longterm statistical comparison will not be possible unless a very large spread of UAP events are entered into the database and, clearly, it would not be viable, purely in the interests of Defence Intelligence, to do so. Investigations, reported in Volume 1 of the Study, were necessarily limited to monthly comparisons taken over a year. No direct correlation was found for solar flux or sunspot number. This does not mean that, in the future, there will not be shown to be some weak correlation, connection or contribution, when taken together with other natural effects

2. One of the reasons for considering sunspot correlation is because the cycle seems to derive from a more fundamental 23 year magnetic periodicity on the sun and, it has been suggested, in some quarters, that UAP and magnetic activity are connected in some way on the earth The solar magnetic cycle has a period approximately twice that of sunspot (flare) activity. The electromagnetic emissions from the sun vary in power, penetrating power, degree of fluctuation and intensity distribution over the earth. The direct effects of electromagnetic radiation are confined to the sun-lit hemisphere of the earth. During each new 11 year cycle the

polarity of the pattern of magnetic activity reverses.

3. Within the 11/23 year cycle,solar surges appear (solar flares) which produce complex magnetic fields. Therefore, even to make correlations between the frequency of UAP reports and spurious magnetic activity will require at least several years of reports in the UAP database - or ideally, a filter to remove identifiable distractors, such as aircraft. Figures 2 to $ 4^{[1]} $ show portion of the solar cycles 21-23. Cycle 21 started in June 1976, Cycle 22 in September 1986 and Cycle 23 (the current Cycle) in May 1996. It is clear that to carry out any meaningful statistical analysis a the dat for a lengthy period of UAP sighting reports is required. As an initial sample the daily measurements were obtained for the period 1986-1996 and used for correlation studies reported at Volume 1.

4. Proof of the postulated UAP-solar connection may be difficult to confirm even if all the statistics were available because it must be remembered that UAP statistics will have been significantly skewed in the more recent decades by the addition of airships, aircraft, satellites, etc. to the reasons for sightings (i.e. man-made events).

5. Auroral Phenomena Magnetic and auroral phenomena (M-Region disturbance) occur at 27 day intervals over months or even years (Figure 1). These recurrent effects are most prevalent during the last three to four years of the 11 year cycle - unexpectedly when normal sunspot activity is low. The terrestrial effects are much less vigorous than the effects caused by flares, but they can last several days, reaching a peak when the earth is at its greatest distance above or below the plane of the sun's equator.