Documents / FOIA release
This Top Secret study by the Interdepartmental Coordinating Group on Germany and Berlin, dated July 12, 1961, and released by the Central Intelligence Agency, answers NSC Directive No. 58 of June 30, 1961. It sets out courses of action for the Berlin crisis but does not judge their merits. It covers imminent presidential decisions, a three-phase timetable running to January 1, military preparations and mobilization, covert action, economic sanctions, public information, negotiating positions and checkpoint procedures for East German personnel.
“Cooper”8 pages
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## SECRET more than $7 billion, the current balance of payments surplus of more than $1 billion per annum, and the very high level of business activity make it feasible from both the fiscal and foreign exchange aspects for the Germans to provide such support. This would still leave the bulk of the budgetary burden of U.S. preparations on the United States (about 80 to 90%). It is recommended that immediately following the German elections, scheduled for mid-September, Chancellor Adenauer be informed that the U.S. expects the Government of the Federal Republic to provide assistance to offset U.S. dollar expenditures in connection with additional deployment of forces. GFR assistance is to include construction and contractual services costs; offsetting conversions of troop pay into foreign currencies, and additional procurement of military equipment in the U.S. This German support would be in addition to measures currently being worked out for reducing the balance of payments effect of the troops currently stationed in Germany. Impact on Trade and Services Transactions in Balance of Payments. The present rate of deficit in the balance of payments is expected to widen later this year as a result of rising imports not fully offset by rising exports and a consequent narrowing margin in the merchandise trade surplus. The increase in Federal expenditures for Berlin preparations and the probably psychological reaction of business and consumers will accelerate the recovery in business activity in the United States. Higher levels of domestic activity can be expected to lead to a considerable rise in the physical volume of imports. At the same time the psychological effects of Berlin preparations, both in the United States and abroad, may be expected to lead to higher world prices, particularly basic materials. If U.S. domestic inflationary pressures become accentuated, these pressures will stimulate imports and inhibit exports. The effect of all these factors could easily add substantially to the over-all balance of payments deficit of the United States, through a rise in the cost and quantity of imports and the cost of freight. However, a reduction in tourist travel to Europe and the potential increase in purchases in the U.S. by the producing countries would partially offset this increased expenditure. In Europe inflationary forces
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 163 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.