Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
Evaluation 5 SECONDS OR LESS 6-10 SECONDS 11-30 SECONDS 91-60 SECONDS Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 3 5 8 0.8 14 2.2 3 4 7 2.2 2.9 5.1 4 6 10 2.0 2.9 4.9 9 11 20 5.6 6.8 12.4 1-Astronomical 136 138 274 36.8 37.3 74.1 43 26 69 31.6 19.1 50.7 44.6 15 61 22.4 7.3 29.7 15 8 23 9.3 5.0 14.3 2-Aircraft 20 16 36 5.4 4.3 9.7 14 13 27 10.3 9.6 19.9 28 28 56 13.7 13.7 27.4 30 18 48 18.6 11.2 29.8 3-Light Phenom. 2 0 2 0.5 0.0 0.5 1 1 2 0.7 0.7 1.4 1 1 2 0.5 0.5 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 1 2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2 2 0.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 12 0 12 3.2 0.0 3.2 7 0 7 5.1 0.0 51 14 0 14 6.8 0.0 6.8 12 0 12 7.5 0.0 7.5 7-Psychological 2 0 2 0.5 0.0 0.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 1.5 0.5 2.0 2 0 2 1.2 0.0 1.2 8-Unknown 23 0 23 6.2 0.0 6.2 22 0 22 16.2 0.0 16.2 44 0 44 21.5 0.0 21.5 51 0 51 31.7 0.0 31.7 9-Other 8 3 11 2.2 0.8 3.0 2 0 2 1.5 0.0 1.5 4 8 12 2.0 3.9 5.9 3 2 5 1.9 1.2 3.1 61SECONDS-5MINUTES 6-30MINUTES OVER30MINUTES DURATIONNOTSTATED Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 55 33 88 14.9 9.0 23.9 64 42 110 19.8 12.2 820 37 17 54 18.0 8.3 26.3 49 29 78 7.9 4.7 12.6 1-Astronomical 10 13 23 2.7 3.5 6.2 40 12 52 11.7 3.5 15.2 28 13 41 13.6 6.3 19.9 118 86 204 19.0 13.8 32.8 2-Aircraft 46 38 84 12.5 10.3 22.8 28 32 60 8.2 9.3 17.5 9 15 14 4.4 7.3 11.7 52 37 89 8.4 6.0 14.4 3-Light Phenom. 5 2 7 1.4 0.5 1.9 7 4 11 2.0 1.2 3.2 0 2 2 0.0 1.0 1.0 3 1 4 0.5 0.2 0.7 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 0.2 0.2 0.4 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 7 7 0.0 1.9 1.9 1 1 2 0.3 0.3 0.6 6 0 6 2.9 0.0 2.9 1 1 2 0.2 0.2 0.4 6-Insuffic. Info. 34 0 34 9.2 0.0 9.2 23 0 23 6.7 0.0 6.7 12 0 12 5.8 0.0 5.8 101 0 101 16.3 0.0 16.3 7-Psychological 4 2 6 1.1 0.5 1.6 9 0 9 2.6 0.0 2.6 6 0 6 2.9 0.0 2.9 5 0 5 0.8 0.0 0.8 8-Unknown 104 0 104 28.3 0.0 28.3 61 0 61 17.8 0.0 17.8 48 0 48 23.3 0.0 23.3 110 0 110 17.7 0.0 17.7 9-Other 12 3 15 33 0.8 41 11 4 15 32 1.2 44 8 5 13 3.9 2.4 6.3 22 4 26 3.5 0.6 4.1 TABLE A200 EVALUATION OF ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS BY NUMBER OF OBJECTS Evaluation 5 SECONDS OR LESS 6-10 SECONDS 11-30 SECONDS 31-60 SECONDS Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 4 6 6.9 13.8 20.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1-Astronomical 2 4 6 9.5 19.0 28.5 0 2 2 0.0 15.4 15.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 11.1 11.1 2-Aircraft 1 5 6 4.8 23.8 28.6 4 1 5 30.8 7.7 38.5 7 5 12 24.1 17.2 41.3 1 3 4 11.1 33.3 44.4 3-Light Phenom. 0 1 1 0.0 4.8 4.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 11.1 11.1 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 2 0 2 9.5 0.0 9.5 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 2 0 2 6.9 0.0 6.9 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.1 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 6.9 0.0 6.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 6 0 6 28.6 0.0 28.6 5 0 5 38.5 0.0 38.5 5 0 5 17.2 0.0 17.2 2 0 2 22.2 0.0 22.2 9-Other 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 3.4 3.4 6.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61SECONDS-5MINUTES 6-30MINUTES OVER30MINUTES DURATIONNOTSTATED Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 7 7 14 11.5 11.5 23.0 6 6 12 13.3 13.3 26.6 3 1 4 15.0 5.0 20.0 4 3 7 5.2 3.9 9.1 1-Astronomical 1 0 1 1.6 0.0 1.6 2 3 5 4.4 6.6 11.0 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 6 3 9 7.8 3.9 11.7 2-Aircraft 17 11 28 27.9 18.0 45.9 6 8 14 13.3 17.8 31.1 4 6 10 20.0 30.0 50.0 13 4 17 16.9 5.2 22.1 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0 3 6.6 0.0 6.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 1.3 0.0 1.3 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 0 1 1.6 0.0 1.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 5.0 5.0 1 0 1 1.3 0.0 1.3 6-Insuffic. Info. 2 0 2 3.3 0.0 3.3 2 0 2 4.4 0.0 4.4 2 0 2 10.0 0.0 10.0 7 0 7 9.1 0.0 9.1 7-Psychological 1 1 2 1.6 1.6 3.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 11 0 11 18.0 0.0 18.0 6 0 6 13.3 0.0 13.3 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 28 0 28 36.4 0.0 36.4 9-Other 2 0 2 3.3 0.0 3.3 3 0 3 6.6 0.0 6.6 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 5 2 7 16.5 2.6 9.1 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.