Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation 5 SECONDS OR LESS 6-10 SECONDS 11-30 SECONDS 31-60 SECONDS Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 5 6 0.8 4.1 4.9 0 2 2 0.0 4.7 4.7 2 4 6 3.0 6.0 9.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.0 2.0 1-Astronomical 36 40 76 29.3 32.5 61.8 10 9 19 23.2 20.9 44.1 13 3 16 19.4 4.5 23.9 2 2 4 4.1 4.1 8.2 2-Aircraft 7 11 18 5.7 8.9 14.6 4 5 9 9.3 11.6 20.9 11 8 19 16.4 11.9 28.3 10 4 14 20.4 8.2 28.6 3-Light Phenom. 0 2 2 0.0 1.6 1.6 1 0 1 2.3 0.0 2.3 0 1 1 0.0 1.5 1.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 1 1 2 0.8 0.8 1.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 1 5 8.2 2.0 10.2 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 3 0 3 2.4 0.0 24 3 0 3 7.0 0.0 7.0 5 0 5 7.5 0.0 7.5 6 0 6 12.2 0.0 12.2 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.5 1.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 12 0 12 9.8 0.0 9.8 9 0 9 20.9 0.0 20.9 17 0 17 25.4 0.0 25.4 19 0 19 38.8 0.0 38.8 9-Other 3 1 4 9.4 0.8 3.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 3.0 0.0 3.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61 SECONDS - 5 MINUTES 6-30 MINUTES OVER 30 MINUTES DURATION NOT STATED Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 20 19 39 16.1 15.3 31.4 21 20 41 17.4 16.5 33.9 16 3 19 20.0 3.8 23.8 17 9 16 10.4 5.5 15.9 1-Astronomical 5 4 9 4.0 3.2 7.2 13 5 18 10.7 4.1 14.8 12 5 17 15.0 6.2 21.2 26 15 41 16.0 9.2 25.2 2-Aircraft 12 9 21 9.7 7.3 17.0 4 14 18 3.3 11.6 14.9 5 12 17 6.2 15.0 21.2 12 6 18 7.4 3.7 11.1 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 5 7 1.7 41 5.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 0.6 0.0 0.6 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 4 5 0.8 3.2 4.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 1.2 0.0 1.2 6-Insuffic. Info. 5 0 5 4.0 0.0 4.0 9 0 9 7.4 0.0 7.4 1 0 1 1.2 0.0 1.2 25 0 25 15.3 0.0 15.3 7-Psychological 1 1 2 0.8 0.8 1.6 5 0 5 4.1 0.0 4.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 1.2 0.6 1.8 8-Unknown 39 0 39 31.5 0.0 31.5 21 0 21 17.4 0.0 17.4 22 0 22 27.5 0.0 27.5 36 0 36 22.1 0.0 22.1 9-Other 4 0 4 3.2 0.0 3.2 2 0 2 1.7 0.0 1.7 4 0 4 5.0 0.0 5.0 11 0 11 6.7 0.0 6.7 TABLE A176 EVALUATION OF ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS BY COLORS REPORTED Evaluation 5 SECONDS OR LESS 6-10 SECONDS 11-30 SECONDS 31-60 SECONDS Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 2 1 3 7.7 3.8 11.5 0 2 2 0.0 10.5 10.5 1 4 5 1.8 7.1 8.9 2 2 4 4.4 4.4 8.8 1-Astronomical 1 2 3 3.8 7.7 11.5 0 2 2 0.0 10.5 10.5 2 0 2 3.6 0.0 3.6 0 2 2 0.0 4.4 4.4 2-Aircraft 2 6 8 7.7 23.1 30.8 8 1 9 42.1 5.3 47.4 19 16 35 33.9 28.6 62.5 17 7 2.4 37.8 15.6 53.4 3-Light Phenom. 1 0 1 3.8 0.0 3.8 0 1 1 0.0 5.3 5.3 0 1 1 0.0 1.8 1.8 0 1 1 0.0 2.2 2.2 4-Birds 1 0 1 3.8 0.0 3.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 2.2 0.0 2.2 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 3.8 0.0 3.8 1 0 1 5.3 0.0 5.3 1 0 1 1.8 0.0 1.8 2 0 2 4.4 0.0 4.4 7-Psychological 1 0 1 3.8 0.0 3.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 3.6 1.8 5.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 6 0 6 23.1 0.0 23.1 4 0 4 21.1 0.0 21.1 9 0 9 16.1 0.0 16.1 10 0 10 22.2 0.0 22.2 9-Other 2 0 2 7.7 0.0 7.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 2.2 0.0 2.2 61 SECONDS -5 MINUTES 6-30 MINUTES OVER 30 MINUTES DURATION NOT STATED Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 21 10 31 17.6 8.9 26.0 26 12 38 25.7 11.9 37.6 11 4 15 19.3 7.0 26.3 16 4 20 12.6 3.1 15.7 1-Astronomical 1 0 1 0.8 0.0 0.8 0 1 1 0.0 1.0 1.0 3 1 4 5.3 1.8 7.1 4 3 7 3.1 2.4 5.5 2-Aircraft 20 15 35 16.8 12.6 29.4 10 20 30 9.9 19.8 29.7 2 2 4 3.5 3.5 7.0 23 8 31 18.1 6.3 24.4 3-Light Phenom. 1 1 2 0.8 0.8 1.6 0 1 1 0.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 0.8 0.0 0.8 4-Birds 1 0 1 0.8 0.0 0.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 0.8 0.8 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0 3 5.3 0.0 5.3 6 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 17 0 17 14.3 0.0 14.3 9 0 9 8.9 0.0 8.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28 0 28 22.0 0.0 22.0 7-Psychological 1 0 1 0.8 0.0 0.8 1 0 1 1.0 0.0 1.0 2 0 2 3.5 0.0 3.5 1 0 1 0.8 0.0 0.8 8-Unknown 26 0 26 21.8 0.0 21.8 15 0 15 14.9 0.0 14.9 27 0 27 47.4 0.0 47.4 29 0 29 22.8 0.0 22.8 9-Other 2 3 5 1.7 2.5 4.2 4 2 6 4.0 2.0 6.0 0 2 2 0.0 3.5 3.5 9 0 9 7.1 0.0 7.1 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.