Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
“Gray”4 pages
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 0 3 3 0.0 2.0 2.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1-Astronomical 57 34 91 38.3 22.8 61.1 3 0 3 1000 0.0 100.0 6 7 13 37.5 43.8 81.3 0 6 6 0.0 100.0 100.0 2-Aircraft 10 2 12 6.7 1.3 8.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 1 1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 0 1 0.7 0.0 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 9 0 9 6.0 0.0 6.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-Psychological 0 1 1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 27 0 27 18.1 0.0 18.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0 3 18.7 0.0 18.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-Other 4 0 4 2.7 0.0 2.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 3 3 0.0 3.1 3.1 1-Astronomical 9 7 16 56.2 43.8 100.0 3 3 6 30.0 30.0 60.0 36 11 47 36.7 11.2 47.9 2-Aircraft 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 2 12 10.2 2.0 12.2 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.0 1.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 1.0 0.0 1.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 10.0 0.0 10.0 8 0 8 8.2 0.0 8.2 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.0 1.0 8-Unknown 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 20.0 0.0 20.0 22 0 22 22.4 0.0 22.4 9-Other 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 10.0 0.0 10.0 3 0 3 3.1 0.0 3.1 ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 82 55 137 6.2 4.2 10.4 2 0 2 3.8 0.0 3.8 3 7 10 4.1 9.5 13.6 12 0 12 5.2 0.0 5.2 1-Astronomical 241 160 401 18.3 12.2 30.5 19 2 21 36.5 3.8 40.3 11 16 27 14.9 21.6 36.5 55 83 138 23.7 35.8 59.5 2-Aircraft 122 115 237 9.3 8.7 18.0 1 0 1 1.9 0.0 1.9 8 1 9 10.8 1.4 12.2 18 10 28 7.8 4.3 12.1 3-Light Phenom. 17 12 29 1.3 0.9 2.2 1 0 1 1.9 0.0 1.9 0 2 2 0.0 2.7 2.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 8 5 13 0.6 0.4 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 1.4 1.4 2.8 2 0 2 0.9 0.0 0.9 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 3 4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 175 0 175 13.3 0.0 13.3 11 0 11 21.1 0.0 21.1 9 0 9 12.2 0.0 12.2 20 0 20 8.6 0.0 8.6 7-Psychological 12 3 15 0.9 0.2 1.1 2 0 2 3.8 0.0 3.8 1 0 1 1.4 0.0 1.4 1 0 1 0.4 0.0 0.4 8-Unknown 232 0 232 17.6 0.0 17.6 4 0 4 7.7 0.0 7.7 9 0 9 12.2 0.0 12.2 23 0 23 9.9 0.0 9.9 9-Other 53 19 72 4.0 1.4 5.4 10 0 10 19.2 0.0 19.2 2 3 5 2.7 4.1 6.8 8 0 8 3.4 0.0 3.4 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 10 5 15 6.7 3.4 10.1 2 3 5 2.7 9.1 68 53 40 93 7.2 5.4 12.6 1-Astronomical 31 6 37 20.8 4.0 24.8 6 8 14 8.1 10.8 189 119 45 164 16.2 6.1 22.3 2-Aircraft 18 11 29 12.1 7.4 19.5 6 4 10 8.1 5.4 135 71 89 160 9.7 12.1 21.8 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 1.4 1.4 28 15 9 24 2.0 1.2 3.2 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.4 14 5 3 8 0.7 0.4 1.1 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 3 4 0.1 0.4 0.5 6-Insuffic. Info. 34 0 34 22.8 0.0 22.8 12 0 12 16.2 0.0 16.2 89 0 89 12.1 0.0 12.1 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 1.4 0.0 1.4 7 3 10 1.0 0.4 1.4 8-Unknown 28 0 28 18.8 0.0 18.8 26 0 26 35.1 0.0 35.1 142 0 142 19.3 0.0 19.3 9-Other 4 2 6 2.7 1.3 4.0 3 0 3 4.1 0.0 4.1 26 14 40 3.5 1.9 5.4 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.