Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation All Years 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 113 83 196 10.9 8.0 18.9 5 0 5 11.9 0.0 11.9 6 8 14 9.5 12.7 22.2 4 1 5 4.8 1.2 6.0 1-Astronomical 115 91 206 11.1 8.8 19.9 3 4 7 7.1 9.5 16.6 11 11 22 17.5 17.5 34.9 8 26 34 9.5 31.0 40.5 2-Aircraft 130 108 238 12.6 10.5 23.1 1 1 2 2.4 2.4 4.8 6 0 6 9.5 0.0 9.5 7 5 12 8.3 6.0 14.3 3-Light Phenom. 16 14 30 1.5 1.4 2.9 2 0 2 4.8 0.0 4.8 0 3 3 0.0 4.8 4.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 7 4 11 0.7 0.4 1.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.6 1.6 2 0 2 2.4 0.0 2.4 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 3 3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 96 0 96 9.3 0.0 9.3 6 0 6 14.3 0.0 14.3 6 0 6 9.5 0.0 9.5 14 0 14 16.7 0.0 16.7 7-Psychological 14 8 22 1.4 0.8 2.2 2 2 4 4.8 4.8 9.6 1 0 1 1.6 0.0 1.6 2 0 2 2.4 0.0 2.4 8-Unknown 195 0 195 18.9 0.0 18.9 8 0 8 19.0 0.0 19.0 7 0 7 11.1 0.0 11.1 12 0 12 14.3 0.0 14.3 9-Other 30 6 36 2.9 0.6 3.5 8 0 8 19.0 0.0 19.0 2 1 3 3.2 1.6 4.8 3 0 3 3.6 0.0 3.6 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 10 1 11 14.3 1.4 15.7 3 1 4 10.7 3.6 14.3 85 72 157 11.4 9.7 21.1 1-Astronomical 9 3 12 12.9 4.3 17.2 3 2 5 10.7 7.1 17.8 81 45 126 10.9 6.0 16.9 2-Aircraft 8 2 10 11.4 2.9 14.3 3 0 3 10.7 0.0 10.7 105 100 205 14.1 13.4 27.5 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 3.6 3.6 14 10 24 1.9 1.3 3.2 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 3.6 3.6 5 2 7 0.7 0.3 1.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 3 3 0.0 0.4 0.4 6-Insuffic. Info. 13 0 13 18.6 0.0 18.6 4 0 4 14.3 0.0 14.3 53 0 53 7.1 0.0 7.1 7-Psychological 2 0 2 2.9 0.0 2.9 0 1 1 0.0 3.6 3.6 7 5 12 0.9 0.7 1.6 8-Unknown 19 0 19 27.1 0.0 27.1 9 0 9 32.1 0.0 32.1 140 0 140 18.8 0.0 18.8 9-Other 2 1 3 2.9 1.4 4.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 4 19 2.0 0.5 2.5 Evaluation All Years 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 3 1 4 2.7 0.9 3.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 1-Astronomical 2 6 8 1.8 5.3 7.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2 2 0.0 18.2 18.2 0 1 1 0.0 7.7 7.7 2-Aircraft 20 20 40 17.7 17.7 35.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 1 6 45.5 9.1 54.6 2 1 3 15.4 7.7 23.1 3-Light Phenom. 2 1 3 1.8 0.9 2.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 1 1 0.0 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 10 0 10 8.8 0.0 8.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 2 0 2 15.4 0.0 15.4 7-Psychological 7 0 7 6.2 0.0 6.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 8-Unknown 33 0 33 29.2 0.0 29.2 5 0 5 100.0 0.0 100.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 5 0 5 38.5 0.0 38.5 9-Other 6 1 7 5.3 0.9 6.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 0 1 1 0.0 6.3 6.3 1 0 1 1.7 0.0 1.7 1-Astromonical 0 2 2 0.0 25.0 25.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 3.3 1.7 5.0 2-Aircraft 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3 8 31.3 18.8 50.0 8 15 23 13.3 25.0 38.3 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 3.3 1.7 5.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.7 1.7 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 2 0 2 12.5 0.0 12.5 4 0 4 6.7 0.0 6.7 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0 6 10.0 0.0 10.0 8-Unknown 3 0 3 37.5 0.0 37.5 4 0 4 25.0 0.0 25.0 15 0 15 25.0 0.0 25.0 9-Other 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 1 0 1 6.3 0.0 6.3 3 1 4 5.0 1.7 6.7 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.