Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
“Gray”4 pages
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 127 89 216 10.7 7.5 18.2 5 0 5 9.6 0.0 9.6 7 8 15 10.1 11.6 21.7 4 2 6 3.6 1.8 5.4 1-Astronomical 150 122 272 12.6 10.3 22.9 9 4 13 17.3 7.7 25.0 12 15 27 17.4 21.7 39.1 9 43 52 8.0 38.4 46.4 2-Aircraft 142 118 260 11.9 9.9 21.8 1 1 2 1.9 1.9 3.8 6 0 6 8.7 0.0 8.7 7 5 12 6.2 4.5 10.7 3-Light Phenom. 16 15 31 1.3 1.3 2.6 2 0 2 3.8 0.0 3.8 0 3 3 0.0 4.3 4.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 8 4 12 0.7 0.3 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.4 1.4 2 0 2 1.8 0.0 1.8 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 3 3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 111 0 111 9.3 0.0 9.3 6 0 6 11.5 0.0 11.5 6 0 6 8.7 0.0 8.7 19 0 19 17.0 0.0 17.0 7-Psychological 15 8 23 1.3 0.7 2.0 2 2 4 3.8 3.8 7.6 1 0 1 1.4 0.0 1.4 2 0 2 1.8 0.0 1.8 8-Unknown 220 0 220 18.5 0.0 18.5 8 0 8 15.4 0.0 15.4 7 0 7 10.1 0.0 10.1 16 0 16 14.3 0.0 14.3 9-Other 34 8 42 2.9 0.7 3.6 12 0 12 23.1 0.0 23.1 2 1 3 2.9 1.4 4.3 3 0 3 2.7 0.0 2.7 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon .10 1 11 12.7 1.3 14.0 .4 1 5 10.8 2.7 13.5 .97 7.7 17.4 11.5 9.2 20.7 1-Astronomical 10 4 14 12.7 5.1 17.8 8 2 10 21.6 5.4 27.0 102 54 15.6 12.1 6.4 18.5 2-Aircraft 11 2 13 13.9 2.5 16.4 4 1 5 10.8 2.7 13.5 113 109 22.2 13.4 13.0 26.9 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.7 2.7 14 11 25 1.7 1.3 3.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.7 2.7 6 2 8 0.7 0.2 0.9 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 3 3 0.0 0.4 0.4 6-Insuffic. Info. 15 0 15 19.0 0.0 19.0 4 0 4 10.8 0.0 10.8 61 0 61 7.3 0.0 7.3 7-Psychological 2 0 2 2.5 0.0 2.5 0 1 1 0.0 2.7 2.7 8 5 13 1.0 0.6 1.6 8-Unknown 20 0 20 25.3 0.0 25.3 10 0 10 27.0 0.0 27.0 159 0 159 18.9 0.0 18.9 9-Other 2 2 4 2.5 2.5 50 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 5 20 1.8 0.6 2.4 Evaluation All Years 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 3 2 5 2.4 1.6 4.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 7.1 1-Astronomical 3 8 11 2.4 6.4 8.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2 2 0.0 18.2 18.2 0 1 1 0.0 7.1 7.1 2-Aircraft 21 23 44 16.8 18.4 35.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 1 6 45.4 9.1 54.5 2 1 3 14.3 7.1 21.4 3-Light Phenom. 2 1 3 1.6 0.8 2.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 1 1 0.0 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 10 0 10 8.0 0.0 8.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 2 0 2 14.3 0.0 14.3 7-Psychological 7 0 7 5.6 0.0 5.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 7.1 8-Unknown 37 0 37 29.6 0.0 29.6 6 0 6 100.0 0.0 100.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 6 0 6 42.9 0.0 42.9 9-Other 6 1 7 4.8 0.8 5.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 9.1 0.0 9.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.0 0 1 1 0.0 5.3 5.3 1 1 2 1.5 1.5 3.0 1-Astronomical 1 2 3 11.1 22.2 33.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 3 5 3.0 4.5 7.5 2-Aircraft 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 4 9 26.3 21.1 47.4 9 17 26 13.6 25.8 39.4 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 3.0 1.5 4.5 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.5 1.5 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.1 2 0 2 10.5 0.0 10.5 4 0 4 61 0.0 6.1 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0 6 9.1 0.0 9.1 8-Unknown 3 0 3 33.3 0.0 33.3 6 0 6 31.6 0.0 31.6 15 0 15 22.7 0.0 22.7 9-Other 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.1 1 0 1 5.3 0.0 5.3 3 1 4 4.5 1.5 6.0 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.