Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation All YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 159 110 26.9 10.5 7.3 17.8 5 0 5 8.9 0.0 8.9 10 15 25 10.8 16.1 26.9 6 2 8 3.5 1.2 4.7 1-Astronomical 179 151 33.0 11.8 10.0 21.8 12 4 16 21.4 7.1 28.5 16 18 34 17.2 19.4 36.6 19 65 84 11.0 37.6 48.6 2-Aircraft 181 141 32.2 11.9 9.3 21.2 1 1 2 1.8 1.8 3.6 6 0 6 6.5 0.0 6.5 13 9 22 7.5 5.2 12.7 3-Light Phenom. 16 17 33 1.1 1.1 2.2 2 0 2 3.6 0.0 3.6 0 5 5 0.0 5.4 5.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 10 4 14 0.7 0.3 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.1 1.1 4 0 4 2.3 0.0 2.3 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 3 4 7 0.2 0.3 0.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffice. Info. 134 0 134 8.8 0.0 8.8 6 0 6 10.7 0.0 10.7 7 0 7 7.5 0.0 7.5 19 0 19 11.0 0.0 11.0 7-Psychological 17 8 25 1.1 0.5 1.6 2 2 4 3.6 3.6 7.2 1 0 1 1.1 0.0 1.1 2 0 2 1.2 0.0 1.2 8-Unknown 331 0 331 21.8 0.0 21.8 9 0 9 16.1 0.0 16.1 10 0 10 10.8 0.0 10.8 31 0 31 17.9 0.0 17.9 9-Other 42 10 52 2.8 0.7 3.5 12 0 12 21.4 0.0 21.4 2 2 4 2.2 2.2 4.4 3 0 3 1.7 0.0 1.7 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 18 2 20 13.3 1.5 14.8 5 1 6 10.9 2.2 13.1 115 90 205 11.3 8.9 20.2 1-Astronomical 13 7 20 9.6 5.2 14.8 9 2 11 19.6 4.3 23.9 110 55 165 10.8 5.4 16.2 2-Aircraft 15 2 17 11.1 1.5 12.6 4 1 5 8.7 2.2 10.9 142 128 270 14.0 12.6 24.6 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.2 2.2 14 11 25 1.4 1.1 2.5 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.2 2.2 6 2 8 0.6 0.2 0.8 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 4 7 0.3 0.4 0.7 6-Insuffic. Info. 33 0 33 24.4 0.0 24.4 4 0 4 8.7 0.0 8.7 65 0 65 6.4 0.0 6.4 7-Psychological 4 0 4 3.0 0.0 3.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.2 2.2 8 5 13 0.8 0.5 1.3 8-Unknown 36 0 36 26.6 0.0 26.6 17 0 17 37.0 0.0 37.0 228 0 228 22.5 0.0 22.5 9-Other 3 2 5 2.2 1.5 3.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22 6 28 2.2 0.6 2.8 TABLE A127 EVALUATION OF ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS Evaluation All Years 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 3 3 6 2.0 2.0 4.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 7.1 7.1 1 0 1 6.2 0.0 6.2 1-Astronomical 4 16 20 2.7 10.9 13.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2 2 0.0 14.3 14.3 0 3 3 0.0 18.7 18.7 2-Aircraft 21 28 49 14.3 19.0 33.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 1 6 35.7 7.1 42.8 2 1 3 12.5 6.2 18.7 3-Light Phenom. 2 1 3 1.3 0.7 2.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 1 1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 10 0 10 6.8 0.0 6.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 7.1 2 0 2 12.5 0.0 12.5 7-Psychological 7 0 7 4.8 0.0 4.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 6.2 0.0 6.2 8-Unknown 4/3 0 43 29.3 0.0 29.3 6 0 6 100.0 0.0 100.0 3 0 3 21.4 0.0 21.4 6 0 6 37.5 0.0 37.5 9-Other 7 1 8 48 0.7 5.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 7.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 0 1 1 0.0 4.8 4.8 1 1 2 1.3 1.3 2.6 1-Astronomical 1 6 7 7.7 46.2 53.9 1 0 1 4.8 0.0 4.8 2 5 7 2.6 6.5 9.1 2-Aircraft 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 4 9 23.8 19.0 42.8 9 22 31 11.7 28.6 40.3 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 2.6 1.3 3.9 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.3 1.3 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 2 0 2 9.5 0.0 9.5 4 0 4 5.2 0.0 5.2 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0 6 7.8 0.0 7.8 8-Unknown 3 0 3 23.1 0.0 23.1 7 0 7 33.3 0.0 33.3 18 0 18 23.4 0.0 23.4 9-Other 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 1 0 1 4.8 0.0 4.8 4 1 5 5.2 1.3 6.5 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.