(Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

Read from the scan by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word.

MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with the .00 subserial number. As an example, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting reports would have the following serial numbers:

1132. 00 representing the best report and observer

1132. 01 representing an additional observer

1132. 02 representing an additional observer

1132. 03 representing an additional observer

1132. 04 representing an additional observer

1132. 05 representing an additional observer

During the course of the transcription of the data to machine card form, it became obvious that certain reports could have been independent observations of the same phenomenon. So, if the presentation of an analysis based on one report for each sighting was valid (the concept of UNIT SIGHTINGS), a presentation of an analysis based on one report for each phenomenon should be valid also. Further, the examination of data relating to the actual number of phenomena was considered to be the proper basis for assessing the probability of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge. Therefore, a designation of OBJECT SIGHTINGS was established, with the following definition:

OBJECT SIGHTING - (1) The group of reports consisting of one report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for each phenomenon accepted for the statistical study.

In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assumed number of phenomena.

It must be recognized that the process of identifying OBJECT SIGHTINGS was deductive, while that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was definitive. A conservative approach was adopted in the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and time of observations, location of observers, duration of observations, and range, bearing, track direction, and identification of the phenomena. Any error of selection of OBJECT SIGHTINGS will tend to be in the direction of reducing the actual number of phenomena observed (several instances of UNIT SIGHTINGS that might be one OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusive enough to justify consolidation of the reports).

Following the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, a series of serial numbers, called the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was established to facilitate any future study of a specific object sighting. Each reported sighting that relates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the same incident serial number, a four-digit code paralleling the major serial number series.