Documents / FOIA release

(Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

Central Intelligence Agency · 2005-07-12 · 312 pages · text by GLM-OCR

This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.

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Coding System and Work Sheet

The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punchedcard system for analysis of data forced the adoption of a master coding plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of an exact nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary.

The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the preliminary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for translation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, every conceivable factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each factor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.

To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an intermediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the system of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A sample is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B.

After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the mechanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted. Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a combination of stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern.

All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B. However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be critical, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.

Cases discussed

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.