Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
“Gray”4 pages
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# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation TOTAL 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 176 109 285 10.8 6.7 17.5 5 0 5 11.1 0.0 11.1 10 10 20 8.7 8.7 17.4 10 2 12 6.9 1.4 8.3 1-Astronomical 248 178 426 15.2 10.9 261 7 6 13 15.6 13.3 28.9 25 19 44 21.7 16.5 38.2 23 52 75 15.8 35.8 51.6 2-Aircraft 174 143 317 10.6 8.7 19.3 0 2 2 0.0 4.4 4.4 9 4 13 7.8 3.5 11.3 15 6 21 10.3 4.1 14.4 3-Light Phenom. 17 7 24 1.0 0.4 1.4 2 0 2 4.4 0.0 4.4 1 0 1 0.9 0.0 0.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 1 1 2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 0.9 0.9 1.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 3 7 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 169 0 169 10.3 0.0 10.3 5 0 5 11.1 0.0 11.1 14 0 14 12.2 0.0 12.2 16 0 16 11.0 0.0 11.0 7-Psychological 28 3 31 1.7 0.2 1.9 2 0 2 4.4 0.0 4.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0 0.7 8-Unknown 297 0 297 18.2 0.0 18.2 10 0 10 22.2 0.0 22.2 14 0 14 12.2 0.0 12.2 15 0 15 10.3 0.0 10.3 9-Other 57 18 75 3.5 1.1 4.6 6 0 6 13.3 0.0 13.3 3 4 7 2.6 3.5 6.1 5 0 5 3.4 0.0 3.4 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 18 4 22 12.9 2.9 15.8 8 3 11 7.8 2.9 10.7 125 90 215 11.5 8.3 19.8 1-Astronomical 24 14 38 17.1 10.0 27.1 15 11 26 14.7 10.8 25.5 154 76 230 14.1 7.0 21.1 2-Aircraft 14 7 21 10.0 5.0 15.0 14 6 20 13.7 5.9 19.6 122 118 240 11.2 10.8 22.0 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 1.0 1.0 2.0 13 6 19 1.2 0.6 1.8 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 7 10 0.3 0.6 0.9 6-Insuffic. Info. 21 0 21 15.0 0.0 15.0 10 0 10 9.8 0.0 9.8 103 0 103 9.5 0.0 9.5 7-Psychological 2 0 2 1.4 0.0 1.4 1 1 2 1.0 1.0 2.0 22 2 24 2.0 0.2 2.2 8-Unknown 31 0 31 22.1 0.0 22.1 27 0 27 26.5 0.0 26.5 200 0 200 18.4 0.0 18.4 9-Other 3 2 5 2.1 1.4 3.5 4 0 4 3.9 0.0 3.9 36 12 48 3.3 1.1 4.4 TABLE A97 EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS BY Evaluation Total 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 17 14 31 8.7 71 15.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.1 1 0 1 7.7 0.0 7.7 1-Astronomical 6 11 17 31 5.6 8.7 1 2 3 14.3 28.6 42.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 3 6 23.1 23.1 44.2 2-Aircraft 40 31 71 20.4 15.8 36.2 1 0 1 14.3 0.0 14.3 3 0 3 33.3 0.0 33.3 2 2 4 15.4 15.4 30.8 3-Light Phenom. 4 2 6 2.0 1.0 3.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 11.1 0.0 11.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 18 0 18 9.2 0.0 9.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-Psychological 3 1 4 1.5 0.5 2.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 37 0 37 18.9 0.0 18.9 1 0 1 14.3 0.0 14.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 15.4 0.0 15.4 9-Other 9 3 12 4.6 1.5 6.1 2 0 2 28.6 0.0 28.6 1 3 4 11.1 33.3 44.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 0 1 10.0 0.0 10.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 14 28 9.0 9.0 18.0 1-Astronomical 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 6 8 1.3 3.9 5.2 2-Aircraft 4 1 5 40.0 10.0 50.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 28 58 19.4 18.1 37.5 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2 5 1.9 1.3 32 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 10.0 0.0 10.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17 0 17 11.0 0.0 11.0 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 1.9 0.6 2.5 8-Unknown 2 0 2 20.0 0.0 20.0 1 0 1 50.0 0.0 50.0 31 0 31 20.0 0.0 20.0 9-Other 1 0 1 10.0 0.0 10.0 1 0 1 50.0 0.0 50.0 4 0 4 2.6 0.0 2.6 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.