Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
“Gray”4 pages
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# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 TABLE A59 EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY Evaluation Excellent Good Doubtful Poor Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 17 8 25 8.0 3.8 11.8 83 444 127 11.0 5.8 16.8 73 58 131 9.2 7.3 16.5 34 22 56 7.8 5.1 12.9 1-Astronomical 32 20 52 15.0 9.4 24.4 108 66 174 14.3 8.7 23.0 88 66 154 11.1 8.3 19.4 46 53 99 10.6 12.2 22.8 2-Aircraft 25 16 41 11.7 7.5 19.2 89 77 166 11.8 10.2 22.0 109 89 198 13.7 11.2 24.9 14.2 27.7 69 9.7 6.2 15.9 3-Light Phenom. 2 0 2 0.9 0.0 0.9 9 9 18 1.2 1.2 2.4 14 9 23 1.8 1.1 2.9 5 0 5 1.1 0.0 1.1 4-Birds 0 2 2 0.0 0.9 0.9 4 4 8 0.5 0.5 1.0 6 3 9 0.8 0.4 1.2 2 1 3 0.5 0.2 0.7 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 5 7 0.3 0.7 1.0 1 2 3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 9 0 9 14.2 0.0 4.2 27 0 27 3.6 0.0 3.6 111 0 111 14.0 0.0 14.0 93 0 93 21.4 0.0 21.4 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 0.4 0.1 0.5 20 6 26 2.5 0.8 3.3 12 2 14 2.8 0.5 3.3 8-Unknown 71 0 71 33.3 0.0 33.3 188 0 188 24.8 0.0 24.9 103 0 103 13.0 0.0 13.0 72 0 72 16.6 0.0 16.6 9-Other 11 0 11 52 0.0 5.2 31 7 38 4.1 0.9 5.0 27 9 36 3.4 1.1 4.5 16 8 24 3.7 1.8 5.5 EXCELLENT GOOD DOUBTFUL POOR Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 9.1 1 0 1 4.5 0.0 4.5 3 0 3 10.7 0.0 10.7 2 0 2 13.3 0.0 13.3 1-Astronomical 2 0 2 14.3 0.0 14.3 2 4 6 9.1 18.2 27.3 3 4 7 10.7 14.3 25.0 1 0 1 6.7 0.0 6.7 2-Aircraft 1 1 2 7.1 7.1 14.3 1 1 2 4.5 4.5 9.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 4.5 0.0 4.5 1 0 1 3.6 0.0 3.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 2 0 2 14.3 0.0 14.3 2 0 2 9.1 0.0 9.1 2 0 2 7.1 0.0 7.1 6 0 6 40.0 0.0 40.0 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 4.5 4.5 2 1 3 7.1 3.6 10.7 1 0 1 6.7 0.0 6.7 8-Unknown 5 0 5 35.7 0.0 35.7 7 0 7 31.8 0.0 31.8 8 0 8 28.6 0.0 28.6 2 0 2 13.3 0.0 13.3 9-Other 2 0 2 14.3 0.0 14.3 2 0 2 9.1 0.0 9.1 4 0 4 14.3 0.0 14.3 3 0 3 20.0 0.0 20.0 Evaluation Excellent Good Doubtful Poor Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 1 1 2 5.9 5.9 11.8 6 5 11 12.5 10.4 22.9 5 4 9 7.1 5.7 12.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1-Astronomical 6 3 9 35.3 17.6 52.9 9 4 13 18.7 8.3 27.0 9 14 23 12.9 20.0 32.9 1 2 3 12.5 25.0 37.5 2-Aircraft 2 0 2 11.8 0.0 11.8 3 0 3 6.2 0.0 6.2 9 4 13 12.9 5.7 18.6 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 4.2 2.1 6.3 0 2 2 0.0 2.9 2.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 1 1 0.0 5.9 5.9 1 2 3 2.1 4.2 6.3 1 0 1 1.4 0.0 1.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 4.2 0.0 4.2 13 0 13 18.6 0.0 18.6 2 0 2 25.0 0.0 25.0 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 2.1 0.0 2.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 3 0 3 17.6 0.0 17.6 8 0 8 16.7 0.0 16.7 3 0 3 4.3 0.0 4.3 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 9-Other 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 6.2 2.1 8.3 0 6 6 0.0 8.6 8.6 1 0 1 12.5 0.0 12.5 EXCELLENT GOOD DOUBTFUL POOR Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 1 5 10.8 2.7 13.5 4 0 4 6.9 0.0 6.9 3 1 4 4.1 1.4 5.5 1-Astromonical 5 4 9 29.4 23.5 52.9 1 13 14 2.7 35.1 37.8 12 15 2.7 20.7 25.9 46.6 11 23 3.9 14.9 31.1 46.0 2-Aircraft 1 0 1 5.9 0.0 5.9 6 6 11 13.5 16.2 29.7 7 1 8 12.1 1.7 13.8 5 5 10 6.9 6.8 13.6 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 1 1 0.0 5.9 6.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 3.4 0.0 3.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0 3 8.1 0.0 8.1 13 0 13 22.4 0.0 22.4 9 0 9 12.2 0.0 12.2 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0 3 4.1 0.0 4.1 8-Unknown 5 0 5 29.4 0.0 29.4 4 0 4 10.8 0.0 10.8 3 0 3 52 0.0 5.2 10 0 10 13.5 0.0 13.5 9-Other 1 0 1 5.9 0.0 5.9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 1.7 0.0 1.7 4 0 4 5.9 0.0 5.4 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.