1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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The rise of religious fundamentalism-not just South Africa
Islamic, but also Christian fundamentalism-threatens In terms of international importance, regional impact,
Nigeria's future. In.the North, where Islam predomi- or virtually any other measure, the prospect of South
nates, Christianity has footholds, and coexistence has Africa's collapse into ethnic conflict would be incom-
been the rule. Despite sporadic skirmishes, tensions parable., South Africa's multicultural society is a
along religious lines have excalated in recent years. microcosm of the world, with linkages to Europe,
There are a growing number of Muslim preachers who America, and Asia. It remains Africa's most powerful
advocate Islamic radicalism and who call for an and productive economy. It is a land not only of great
"Islamic republic" in Nigeria. In 1991, a Muslim fun- potential for the long term but also of great danger for
damentalist in Katsina whipped up anti-Christian fer- the near future.
vor that spread to Bauchi State and led to the killing of
more than 1,000 people in religious riots. In 1992, It may be inappropriate to place South Africa in a
hundreds of Hausa Muslims were massacred by Chris- rubric of "potential" ethnic conflict. In fact, ethnic
tians in Kaduna State. Significantly, that conflict had conflict has existed in South Africa for many decades,
ethnic as well as religious overtones-the Christians even centuries. Today, thousands are dying every year
were Katafs. in ethnic strife as the apartheid system is dismantled.
South Africans of all races are trying to achieve a tran-
In the southern states, Islamic radicalism is viewed sition that has been accomplished by revolution else-
with a growing concern. In 1986, General Babangida, where; but some on several sides of this complicated
the country's strongman president, allowed Nigeria to process are, or appear to be, intent on promoting con-
join the Organization of the Islamic Conference flict.
(OIC), the global association of Islamic countries;
Christian leaders in the South were outraged and said Actual and potential ethnic conflict in South Africa
so from pulpits. For the first time since the Biafra War, exists at several levels: these may be categorized as
voices favoring secession are heard in the South, nota- intraethnic, interethnic, and interracial.
bly in the southeast, but also in Yorubaland.
Violent conflict within ethnic sectors of the South
Will things fall apart? The potential for conflict is African population rose with the political tide and
greater today than it has been at any time since the with the approach of constitutional resolution.
Biafra War a quarter of a century ago. Frustration with Although newspaper and television accounts some-
incompetent and despotic military government is rife. times give the impression that the Zulu nation (for
Corruption is endemic. Infrastructure lies in ruins, such it is) largely supports Inkatha and opposes Man-
from impassable roads to shuttered universities. Dom- dela's African National Congress (ANC), the fact is
ination of national affairs by Muslims is becoming an that much of the deathly violence in Natal and on the
issue in the South at a time when Muslim fundamen- Rand was between Zulu Inkatha supporters on the one
talism is on the rise. hand and Zulu ANC members on the other. The Zulu
nation is fragmented by a myriad of clan lineages and
Nigeria may dissolve into ethnic conflict much as boundaries, and clan conflict has worsened severely as
Sudan has, but, to the world at large, this prospect is a direct result of the political contest.
far more worrisome in Nigeria's case. Nigeria is an
African cornerstone, a country well connected to ihe Violent conflict between ethnic groups in the republic
rest of the world, OPEC's fourth-largest oil producer, occurs in the squalid townships and sometimes on
and a model of Christian-Islamic coexistence on railroad cars taking people to and from work, but, in
Africa's troubled transition zone. The breakup of fact, South Africa has hitherto escaped widespread,
Nigeria would be a geopolitical catastrophe. regional strife of this kind. Undoubtedly some of the
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