1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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General Discussion The other thing we are seeing in Russia is not only the
non-Russians asking for or demanding as much inde-
QUESTION: Dr. Wixman, if we accept your analogy pendence or autonomy as they can get but also Rus-
that the disintegration of the Soviet Union can be sians declaring their independence as republics. So a
compared with the disintegrations of previous federation of maybe 88 republics may exist when
empires, can we also look at the Russian federation everything is finished. Russian localism is, in part, a
now as an empire? Is there a possibility of the Russian response and a reaction against minority nationalism,
federation also disintegrating like the Soviet Union? particularly among the nationally conscious groups
like the Tatars, but it also may reflect a limited level of
DR. WIXMAN: For the most part, no. There are very Russian nationalism itself that would be more centrip-
few regions of the Russian federation within which etal in its orientation.
the Russians are not the vast majority. Siberia and the
Far East is now-whatever it was before-extremely QUESTION: Of the 22 republics within the current
Russian in makeup. Russian federation, one has seceded, several others
have threatened to secede, and some are developing
The Russian Federation is basically Russia. The big- their own economic policies-in other words, eco-
gest threat to Russia today in terms of its internal terri- nomically seceding. Is the center giving power to the
torial integrity is not going to come from minorities. If regions or are the regions taking power from the cen-
I had to guess where a problem might arise, and I was ter? In the latter case, is it really a camouflage confed-
just there for the sixth time in .10 years, it is in the eration?
Russian Far East. I think that the Russians are going to
have more problems dealing with Russian territories DR. KAISER: This looks more to me like localism
that perceive themselves as different and that resent and regionalism than it does territorial nationalism. It
Muscovite rule than from the minorities themselves. is similar to the previous disintegrative process, but it
There is a strong movement in the Far East for that. does not appear as though an impetus for outright
independence exists to the same degree that it did at
DR. KAISER: I agree with parts of what Dr. Wixman the level of the Union republics. I should add a caveat
has said. As I indicated in my presentation, a sense of here: not all Union republics were equally secession-
national consciousness is something that typically pre- ist, and the Central Asian republics were not necessar-
cedes the drive for independence, and it is really ily all that proindependence when this process first
absent for the most part in a lot of these smaller non- began. It was the Baltic states that were pushing this
Russian groups to the east. One region that Dr. Wix- forward, and a kind of diffusion occurred from there.
man didn't mention, which I think is critically impor- Some of the republics even accepted independence as
tant, is the North Caucasus. It is an area without a a fait accompli after August 1991.
large Russian population. Russians are leaving that
area too, setting up the conditions through which a ris- In short, all the groups do not have to be nationalistic,
ing call for independence may occur. but the wave of territorial nationalism that is needed to
get the ball rolling toward the ultimate point of disin-
The Chechen republic, first of all, declared its inde- tegration currently does not appear to exist within the
pendence from the Chechen Ingush ASSR and Russian Federation.
declared its independence from Russia. It is the only
one that has actually declared its outright indepen- DR. WIXMAN: The real issue within the Russian
dence. At the same time, a lot of the North Caucasian state-with the few exceptions of some of the nation-
peoples have joined together in a confederation. They als on the periphery who are really inconsequential to
are still a part of Russia but almost once removed in
that sense.
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