Documents / FOIA release

1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

Central Intelligence Agency · 205 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency conference report, dated October 1995, contains the proceedings of a conference on ethnic conflict held 30 September to 1 October 1993. The CIA's Geographic Resources Division sponsored it. Academic geographers, anthropologists and US Government officials presented papers on ethnic and territorial conflict in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia and South Asia. They also discussed what these conflicts mean for US policy. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 9 …how various groups have reacted to rising terri- tion as well as numerous territorial processes that…
  • p. 18 …thus closely linked to the second core terri- territorial status quo for granted. torial issue: the…
  • p. 19 …ment initially focused on individual language rights The latter encompasses laws that set aside some terri…
  • p. 28 …have valid links between their identity and their terri- tory and have the expectation of rights…
  • p. 32 …and socioeconomic status as they relate to terri- toriality. Dr. Murphy referred to the ability of…
  • p. 33 …Although a statistical correla- suggest giving the old provinces more political-terri- tion existed between region…
  • p. 50 …want Krajina as a piece of geographical terri- assigning identities to local populations who often did…
  • p. 52 …Sovereignty over European terri- taposition of two ethnic groups, a common feature of tory was initially…
  • p. 66 …That may mean some of the kinds of terri- quasiautonomous nature. Despite this devolution, a torial…
  • p. 76 …National identity and terri- perceived as their homeland, and this has frequently torial identity have been…
  • p. 79 …Russia today in terms of its internal terri- nomically seceding. Is the center giving power to…
  • p. 153 …The real crux of the terri- The ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka is primarily between torial…
C00123268
The Turks probably would not heed a call from the and Greece (their coreligionists) against the Muslim
West to stay out of the conflict because they are abso- Turks and Albanians, but the Bulgarians have a deep
lutely fed up with their so-called Western allies. Dur- hatred of the Greeks and Serbs, and Sofia would gain
ing my visits to Turkey in 1992 and 1993, anti- nothing from such a situation. On the other hand, if
Westernism was apparent everywhere. The lack of Bulgaria sided with Turkey and Albania, it could gain
support for the Turkish position on Cyprus is only a territory that it has demanded for two centuries-
minor irritant as compared to Western callousness Yugoslav and Greek Macedonia, and Greek Thrace
over the issue of Islam in the Balkans. We should not (thereby gaining access to the Aegean)-and address
forget that it was the Turks who introduced Islam into - its grievances against Serbia and Greece. Turkey
the region and who built the cities of Sarajevo, would certainly prefer Bulgarian hegemony over
Mostar, Jajce, Konjic, and others that are now sitting Thrace, thereby eliminating a border with Greece.
in ruin. They identify greatly with the monuments Turkish seizure of the islands off its coast would also
built by their ancestors and their coreligionists in that guarantee Turkey full access to the Mediterranean
region. The West has asked much of the Turks in past from Istanbul (something that is currently a problem
decades-to be a bulwark against Soviet Communism for them because Greece is uncooperative on passage
during the Cold War; to embargo goods from Iran and through its territorial waters by Turkish ships).
Iraq (much to the detriment of the Turkish economy);
and, most recently, to act as a moderating influence If such a war broke out, the Croats and Muslims of
and as a surrogate for the West in many of the new Bosnia and Herzegovina would take revenge against
nations of Central Asia. In each case, Turkey has met the Serbs, and Hungary might use that as a way to
these requests. The Turks are understandably upset, seize some of the Hungarian-populated northern com-
then, when the West does not respond to their call to munes of Vojvodina. Hungarian involvement in an
protect Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kos- international dispute regarding Hungarians in another
ovo or to protect ethnic Turks in Cyprus or Bulgaria. 9 country might lead Romania and/or Slovakia to
become aggressive against Hungary or the Hungarian
Involvement by Turkey in any Balkan conflict would minorities in their countries.
most assuredly guarantee that Greece would aid Ser-
bia. Of all their territorial and ethnic problems, the If a major war broke out with Greece and Turkey on
Turks agree that it is the Greeks who are the most seri- opposite sides, what would the West do? If it backed,
ous for them. Greece and closed all possibilities of Turkey joining
the EU, Turkey would undoubtedly shift away from
The worst case scenario probably hinges on the Bul- the West to a more Islamic position. Clearly, internal
garians, not only because their country lies between pressures in Turkey-which are already mounting-
Greece, Turkey, Serbia, and Macedonia but also would dictate such a move regardless of the desires of
because they have real grievances against the Serbs the moderate government. Even a neutral stance by
(over Macedonia) and Greeks (over Macedonia and the West would result in a Turkish popular backlash.
Thrace). Bulgarians are now terrified about their heoi
neighbors going to war; they wish to remain out of the Of great iportance istepoionfRusasa
fray. However, in the event that Greece and Serbia are major power. While Russia may back Serbia in its war
fighting against Turkey and Albania, Bulgaria might against Croatia or the Bosnian Muslims, it would back
be forced into the war. Bulgaria could side with Serbia Bulgaria and Turkey should they become allies against
9Not only did Bulgaria maintain a policy of intimidation and per- always been Bulgaria and not Serbia (which in the
secution of Bulgarian Muslims (Ponaks) during the 1970s and Cold War sided with the anti-Soviet West). It would
1980s, which resulted in a substantial emigration of Pomaks to also be useful to Russia to use such a stance to improve
Turkey, but also in the late 1980s and early 1990s more than
300,000 ethnic Turks fled Bulgaria as a result of extreme oppres-
sion. The West did little more than protest these acts. This was no
different from the West's reaction to the Greeks' infiltration of
Cyprus and the mass murder of ethnic Turks.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 205 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.