Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency conference report, dated October 1995, contains the proceedings of a conference on ethnic conflict held 30 September to 1 October 1993. The CIA's Geographic Resources Division sponsored it. Academic geographers, anthropologists and US Government officials presented papers on ethnic and territorial conflict in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia and South Asia. They also discussed what these conflicts mean for US policy. The document contains no UFO material.
“Nevers”25 pages
C00123268 The Turks probably would not heed a call from the and Greece (their coreligionists) against the Muslim West to stay out of the conflict because they are abso- Turks and Albanians, but the Bulgarians have a deep lutely fed up with their so-called Western allies. Dur- hatred of the Greeks and Serbs, and Sofia would gain ing my visits to Turkey in 1992 and 1993, anti- nothing from such a situation. On the other hand, if Westernism was apparent everywhere. The lack of Bulgaria sided with Turkey and Albania, it could gain support for the Turkish position on Cyprus is only a territory that it has demanded for two centuries- minor irritant as compared to Western callousness Yugoslav and Greek Macedonia, and Greek Thrace over the issue of Islam in the Balkans. We should not (thereby gaining access to the Aegean)-and address forget that it was the Turks who introduced Islam into - its grievances against Serbia and Greece. Turkey the region and who built the cities of Sarajevo, would certainly prefer Bulgarian hegemony over Mostar, Jajce, Konjic, and others that are now sitting Thrace, thereby eliminating a border with Greece. in ruin. They identify greatly with the monuments Turkish seizure of the islands off its coast would also built by their ancestors and their coreligionists in that guarantee Turkey full access to the Mediterranean region. The West has asked much of the Turks in past from Istanbul (something that is currently a problem decades-to be a bulwark against Soviet Communism for them because Greece is uncooperative on passage during the Cold War; to embargo goods from Iran and through its territorial waters by Turkish ships). Iraq (much to the detriment of the Turkish economy); and, most recently, to act as a moderating influence If such a war broke out, the Croats and Muslims of and as a surrogate for the West in many of the new Bosnia and Herzegovina would take revenge against nations of Central Asia. In each case, Turkey has met the Serbs, and Hungary might use that as a way to these requests. The Turks are understandably upset, seize some of the Hungarian-populated northern com- then, when the West does not respond to their call to munes of Vojvodina. Hungarian involvement in an protect Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kos- international dispute regarding Hungarians in another ovo or to protect ethnic Turks in Cyprus or Bulgaria. 9 country might lead Romania and/or Slovakia to become aggressive against Hungary or the Hungarian Involvement by Turkey in any Balkan conflict would minorities in their countries. most assuredly guarantee that Greece would aid Ser- bia. Of all their territorial and ethnic problems, the If a major war broke out with Greece and Turkey on Turks agree that it is the Greeks who are the most seri- opposite sides, what would the West do? If it backed, ous for them. Greece and closed all possibilities of Turkey joining the EU, Turkey would undoubtedly shift away from The worst case scenario probably hinges on the Bul- the West to a more Islamic position. Clearly, internal garians, not only because their country lies between pressures in Turkey-which are already mounting- Greece, Turkey, Serbia, and Macedonia but also would dictate such a move regardless of the desires of because they have real grievances against the Serbs the moderate government. Even a neutral stance by (over Macedonia) and Greeks (over Macedonia and the West would result in a Turkish popular backlash. Thrace). Bulgarians are now terrified about their heoi neighbors going to war; they wish to remain out of the Of great iportance istepoionfRusasa fray. However, in the event that Greece and Serbia are major power. While Russia may back Serbia in its war fighting against Turkey and Albania, Bulgaria might against Croatia or the Bosnian Muslims, it would back be forced into the war. Bulgaria could side with Serbia Bulgaria and Turkey should they become allies against 9Not only did Bulgaria maintain a policy of intimidation and per- always been Bulgaria and not Serbia (which in the secution of Bulgarian Muslims (Ponaks) during the 1970s and Cold War sided with the anti-Soviet West). It would 1980s, which resulted in a substantial emigration of Pomaks to also be useful to Russia to use such a stance to improve Turkey, but also in the late 1980s and early 1990s more than 300,000 ethnic Turks fled Bulgaria as a result of extreme oppres- sion. The West did little more than protest these acts. This was no different from the West's reaction to the Greeks' infiltration of Cyprus and the mass murder of ethnic Turks. 35
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 205 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.