1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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and 2) the implications for Turkey and the Middle The inaction on the part of the West to the plight of
East. A possible scenario is presented at the end of Muslims and Croats in former Yugoslavia may open a
this presentation to illustrate the magnitude that these Pandora's box by promoting, rather than inhibiting,
events may take. ethnic nationalism. A green light has been given in
regions in which the fires of nationalism were already
Regardless of actual motive in not aiding the Bosnian rising as a result of their newfound freedom. In all
Muslims or the Croats, the West has created a new sit- cases of decolonization, ethnic nationalism rises in the
uation throughout the region. Had the United States newly created state. This often results in a demand
and its European allies come to the rescue of the that the colonizer go home. Russians and Serbs today
newly established Croatian and Bosnian nations when are victims of such policies of decolonization, as were
they were invaded by the Serbs, a clear message the English, French, Germans, and others in lands for-
would have been sent that the Western countries sup- merly controlled by them.
ported democratic multinational states in the newly
forming countries in Eastern Europe. Many of these When nothing was done to stop or punish the Serbs for
countries, as fledgling democracies, are struggling their outrageous behavior, the message was also sent to
with situations of multiculturalism and of having large nations that they better get rid of problematic minorities
and influential ethnic minorities. By not supporting now rather than risk intervention from the outside.
such ideas in Croatia and Bosnia, the opposite mes- Romanians, Serbs, and Slovaks may perceive the Hun-
sage was sent. garian minorities as a greater threat because the Hun-
garian nationalists in Hungary may try to use the
On the one hand, it was clear by implication that the existence of Hungarian colonies in neighboring coun-
West would not interfere in the internal matters of tries as a pretext to change the borders. Similarly, Esto-
these states regarding ethnic issues and, on the other, nians and Latvians will fear even more so the existence
that ethnic cleansing and brutality were to be only ver- of a large Russian population if the West as made it
bally censored. This leads to two problems regarding clear that in principle it is all right for Russia to liberate
ethnic stability in the region. One is the reaction of their people-the Russians-in Latvia and Estonia.
countries to their ethnic minorities that they perceive Estonian and Latvian nationalists may feel an even
to be problematic. The other is to actions of states greater urgency to induce the Russians to leave, so as to
fearing outside aggression in the guise of defending minimize their chances of losing their independence.
coethnics in their states. If the United States and its allies do nothing to stop the
In the first case we have indicated to Russia that, if it Serbs in their nationalist drive to ethnically cleanse
should so desire to reincorporate the Baltic states, Bosnia and to incorporate other parts of the former
Ukraine, or Kazakhstan on the pretext of defending Yugoslavia, then why should the Serbs not do the
the ethnic Russians in those territories, then the West same in Kosovo and Vojvodina? If the West did noth-
is unconcerned. This may add fuel to the existing Rus- ing in those cases, it most certainly is not going to do
sian nationalist groups that demand the return of those any more over Kosovo. We have thus promoted more
lands because: 1) they have ethnic Russians living Serbian aggression as well as paved the way for possi-
there who need to be protected, therefore these lands ble Hungarian, Romanian, Russian, Slovak, Estonian,
should be under Russian control; and 2) lands once Albanian, or other acts of ethnic violence against other
under the Russian people must always be part of nations and peoples.
Mother Russia. Similarly, Hungarian nationalists can
use the same argument to demand the return of Vojvo- Had the Serbs been stopped and punished (as the Ger-
dina and parts of Slovakia and Romania. If it is all mans were during World War II), a clear message
right for Serbs to invade and ethnically cleanse in the would have been sent that we do not accept undemo-
name of protecting Serbs in these other regions, then cratic behavior. Would it not be better to send the
why not allow Hungarians, Romanians, Bulgarians, or message that multinational policies are what the West
any number of other peoples to readjust national bor-
ders or protect ethnic minorities in other states?
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