1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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later claimed to have been forced out in order to get unhappy with their large Albanian population. Thus, a
special treatment (houses and jobs) in Belgrade and war in Kosovo would probably lead to Albanian and
other parts of Serbia where housing and jobs are in Macedonian involvement. Such a war has the poten-
short supply. tial to also drag in Greece and Turkey.
Milosevic and other Serbian nationalists used this type
of scare tactic to justify the Serbian invasions of east- The Implications of Western Nonaction in Bosnia
ern Croatia (Srem), Croatia's Krajina region, and Bos- and Herzegovina
nia and Herzegovina. The threat to Serbian lives,
property, and security were used, in spite of the fact The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in parts of
that no such provocations existed. The same tactics Croatia has destabilized the entire region. While some
used in Kosovo were applied to other areas where may see this as only a local issue of those republics,
Serbs lived outside Serbia. and, as such, not of vital interests to the United States
or its Western allies, others with more expertise and
There is a great potential for conflict in Kosovo experience in this region recognize the broader impli-
because approximately 1.7 million Albanians reside cations of this conflict. The situation of Muslims in
there and because the Serbs claim that Kosovo is not Serbia and Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia has
only Serbian but also is the Urheimat(original home- worsened dramatically as a result of the Serbian poli-
land) of the Serbian people. The Serbians are perse- cies in Croatia and Bosnia. It is not only Serbian
cuting Albanians-closing Albanian ethnic action but also the response by the West that has
institutions, engaging in summary arrests and torture added to the instability.
of Albanians, and expelling Albanians. The Serbian
regime is also now settling Serbs in the region. This Fear of greater Serbian aggression is resulting in a rise
region has the greatest potential for ethnic conflict in in anger among the Albanians throughout the region.
all of Eastern Europe. If the Serbs attempt a similar The "what if" scenarios are too numerous to discuss in
policy as that applied in Bosnia to its native Muslim this paper because they depend on many other coun-
population, it is most likely that Albania will not tries and issues. What is clear, however, is that Alba-
remain inactive. nians in Kosovo for the moment are resisting Serbian
attempts to get them to rise up and give the Serbs an
Albanians in Macedonia and Kosovo excuse to come in and smash them. In the event of a
Directly across the border from Kosovo is Macedonia, real war, however, the violence in this region would
with a large Albanian population. In all Macedonia's be far greater than that of Bosnia. On the one hand, the
western communes (counties), the Albanians form a Serbian attachment to Kosovo is far greater than that
majority of the population. In those bordering Kosovo to Bosnia, and, on the other hand, the Albanians are
and Albania (like Tetovo and Gostivar), Albanians not as traditionally docile as the Bosnian Muslims. In
compose over 90 percent of the local population. addition, Kosovo borders an ethnically Albanian
Because Albanians in Macedonia boycotted the last nation-state.
census and because the ethnic Macedonians were sat-
isfied that they did, it is unclear as to the actual popu- The West's general inaction in Bosnia has also played
lation of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia itself. Having a major role in creating greater destabilization. While
traveled there in 1990, it was obvious that throughout many Westerners close their eyes to the greater and
western Macedonia the Albanians form a distinct broader implications of this war, members of other
majority, and in much of northern and central Mace- countries and regions have watched keenly. Two dis-
donia they form a significant minority. Should a war tinct issues must therefore be addressed: 1) the prece-
break out in Kosovo, it is doubtful that Macedonian dent set and its implications in Eastern Europe itself
Albanians would not become involved. Refugees from
Kosovo would flee into Macedonia, which would be
intolerable to the Slavic Macedonians who already are
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