1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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demands for the return of territories deemed to be Peipus (Chudskoe Ozero in Russian) as far as the Bal-
unjustly under the control of foreign groups or states, tic Sea, Russians form a clear majority of the popula-
and those related to the liberationof coethnics living on. Indeed, Narve is a Russian city in Estonia. There
in excave communities in neighboring countries or is a great potential for a Russian attempt to secede
regions. In this first category, I include only those from Estonia and join Russia itself. This would lead to
issues in which the Western powers cannot or should a great deal of conflict. Most of these Russians do not
not become involved, in spite of the fact that they may represent the descendants of early Russian immigrants
result in open warfare. In many of these, however, to Estonia but rather part of the huge Russian popula-
diplomatic discussion before the outbreak of hostili- tion that arrived after World War II.
ties may be useful. In Latvia, Russians-when combined with Belorus-
There are six potentially serious local conflicts that sians and Ukrainians-account for slightly less than
may arise in Eastern Europe that are based on ethnot- half the country's population. In Riga, Slays far out-
erritorial issues. These include both claims to territo- number native Latvians. In both Latvia and Estonia, as
ries in other countries that are based on historical well as in neighboring Lithuania (where the Slays
grievances and issues of national liberation of ethnic compose only about 20 percent of the population),
minorities living in someone else's country. Four con- there is a fear that Russia may use the presence of
cern transborder peoples: 1) the Russian minorities in these significant Russian minority populations as a
Ukraine and the Baltic states; 2) the Moldovan ques- pretext (i.e., a justification) to reincorporate these
tion, which includes both issues of ethnic rights for small countries into a new Russian-dominated state.
Russians and Ukrainians in Moldova and border
issues between Ukraine and Romania 3) a possible In Estonia, Latvia, and-to a lesser extent-Lithuania,
secessionist movement in western Ukraine; and 4) local governments are devising various forms of legis-
Hungarian minorities in neighboring Slovakia, Serbia, lation to induce the Russians to leave. Although it is
and Romania. Two involve minority issues: Muslim reasonable for Estonians and Latvians to demand that
minorities living in the former Yugoslav lands and citizens learn the local language and swear allegiance
Bulgaria and ethnic Turkish minorities in the Balkans. to those countries-as all nations of the world demand
allegiance to the new homeland to obtain citizen-
Russians in Ukraine and teBlcSaes ship-it is clear that the two states desire to get rid of
The collapse of the USSR and the declaration of inde- the Russians. Open hostility toward or attacks upon
pendence by the former non-Russian republics has left Russians will provoke problems with Russia, so it is
millions of Russians outside Russia. Their situation is left to a game of politics. This could escalate into a
debated both locally and in Russia and plays a major serious conflict with Russia, especially if a Russian
role in the current political relations of Russia and nationalist government arises in Moscow. Regardless
these states. In a few cases, the issue is not just cul- of how this goes, it is clear that the United States and
tural and ethnic. In the cases of Ukraine and Estonia, its Western allies cannot and should not do anything in
the Russian population has a significant presence on the event of such a showdown. On the other hand, the
the border of Russia and in those two cases (as with West's inaction in the Croatian and Bosnian conflict
Kazakstan), Russian nationalists are demanding that may play a great role in increasing hostilities and con-
these areas be reincorporated into Russia. In eastern flicts in the Baltic region. This is discussed later in this
Ukraine and eastern Estonia, this can be even more paper.
serious because these regions are major industrial
areas vital to the economic well-being of these new The Moldovan Question
republics. Upon declaring independence from the USSR, Mold-
ova found itself in a unique position among the former
The situation of the Russians in Estonia is serious.
Here the Russian issue is not merely ethnic but also
territorial. On the eastern margins of Estonia one finds
a large Russian population. In the area north of Lake
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