1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

C00123268
events are distorted to provide a legitimacy for current in Poland; the Czech, Slovak, and Croatian Republics;
claims. The Greek claim to the name Macedonia is a Romania; and Hungary. Vlah communities exist in
good example of the use of historical justification. various parts of former Yugoslavia, Albania, and
Greece.' In Latvia one also finds a territorially com-
Reasons deal with actual situations related to actual pact group of Latgalians (Catholic Latvians who
(or perceived) threats, actual security issues, or speak a distinct dialect of the Latvian language)
attempts to redress recent injustices that have resulted around the city of Daugavpils. Similarly there are
in serious problems for a given people, nation, or Tatars in Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova who have
state. Justifications,on the other hand, are excuses begun to ally themselves with the Turks in Turkey. A
used to legitimize the desires or actions of one or full listing of ethnic, cultural, and religious minorities
another group to achieve their own aims. A variety of in the region is not useful because most are of little
historical-and more so folkloric-historical-justifi- importance other than in cultural contexts. These and
cations, for example, have played a major role in Ser- other cultural questions need not, and should not, be
bia's aggression against Croatia and Bosnia and given too much shrift by American policymakers.
Herzegovina, and in Greece's anti-Macedonian
stance. These two are deeply intertwined and explain In many cases, there are also small groups of one or
to a great extent Greece's open support for Serbia in another nationality living in neighboring territories.
ret cWhile those of the Russians, Serbs, and Hungarians in
neighboring countries present serious problems (albeit
to varying degrees), others do not. Although Slove-
Potential for Ethnic Conflict in Eastern Europe nians in Slovenia hope that the Slovene minorities i
Italy, Hungary, and Austria will be treated fairly and
We can divide the current issues of ethnic conflict in that support will be given to the survival of the Slov-
Eastern Europe into three categories. The first repre- ene language and culture in those areas, there is little
sents the least problematic situations where individual chance that any major conflict will erupt involving
groups request recognition of minority rights. These Slovenes in these countries in the near future. The
are composed of individual ethnic groups that do not same can be said for the small colonies of Croats and
threaten the territorial integrity of any nation or whose Serbs in Hungary, the Romanians in border areas of
demands or requests will not result in anything more Bulgaria and Serbia, or the Poles in Belarus or
than local demonstrations (even violent ones) or pro- Ukraine.
tests. The second category is made up of those ethnic
issues, that may result in some degree of violence or
even territorial changes that are of local importance Potentially Serious Conflicts on a Local Level
only (for instance, those that do not threaten greater
instability throughout the region) or those that are The second category of ethnic issues in the region
quite serious but in which the Western Allies (or the comprises situations that may lead to serious conflict
United States individually) should not become between two or more peoples within a country or
involved. The last category represents those ethnic between neighboring states. This last group is repre-
issues that could lead to serious regional conflicts, to sented by two types of issues: those related to
major international conflict, or to major regional
destabilization that may require outside intervention. I The Vlahs are the descendants of Latinized Myrians from the
coastal regions of Dalmatia (Latinized during the Roman period)
who maintained a nomadic or seminomadic way of life through the
mid-20th century. For the most part, they have been assimilated by
Minority Rights Issues other Balkan nations, but communities of Vlahs still live in Greece,
Macedonia, Serbia, Albania. and Bosnia. These peoples should not
be confused with Romanians who migrated out of Wallachia into
Minority culture groups exist in every country in East- bordering areas of Serbia and Bulgaria but who are also locally
ern Europe. There are, for example, populations of called Vlahs (Vast).
Jews and Roma (Gypsies) in every country. In addi-
tion, there are ethnic Germans in significant numbers
26