1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

C00123268
Summary of General Discussion dynamic is engaged in places like Bosnia, what can
the geographic discipline tell policymakers that can
DR. POULSEN: I would like to elaborate on one of help us as we attempt conflict resolution-especially
the points that Dr. Murphy made about ethnic mobili- in cases where the conflicts are violent?
zation and socioeconomic status as they relate to terri-
toriality. Dr. Murphy referred to the ability of the DR. MURPHY: Conflict resolution is clearly one of
Serbs to mobilize themselves on the basis of their the most important issues that we have to deal with. It
envy and resentment toward the Slovenes and Croats, is difficult to answer that briefly in a way that gets
who are much more economically developed. Ethnic beyond generalities. Nevertheless, let me say a few
group mobilization can work in the reverse as well, things.
when more developed regions resent the flow of
resources to poorer regions. For example, the Croatian Understanding the issues of territory, scale, and loca-
identity that developed since the 1960s certainly origi- tion is necessary to make sensible and intelligent pro-
nated, in part, because this group was the productive posals to ameliorate existing conflicts.
part of Yugoslavia and the Croatians felt that the reve-
nues they generated were being wasted in Serbia and First of all, conflict resolution requires an understand-
in the southern parts of the country. One can point to a ing, in part, of the strategies that are likely to be
similar situation in Spain where the separatist feelings employed by the participants. This, in turn, requires an
that exist among the Basques and the Catalonians understanding of how participants understand and per-
come, not because they lack resources, but, again, ceive territory. I think it is actually fairly clear why the
because they reside in the most productive part of Serbian military has pursued aggression in particular
Spain-on a per capita basis-and their productivity areas. It is further clear why that is happening in terms
goes to the benefit of non-Catalonian and non-Basque of basic strategic concerns. An understanding of
regions. underlying territorial motives and objectives, I think,
is helpful in formulating any kind of response to
DR. MURPHY: That is an important point. I tried to something like the current conflict in the Balkans.
allude to this after saying there was Serbian resent-
ment of Croats and Slovenes because of the dispropor- Another issue that it is necessary to understand in
tionate share of tourism-related revenues that they terms of conflict resolution is that of scale. One must
receive. The key to understanding socioeconomic pat- be cognizant of the impact of a particular proposal for
terns in terms of relative location, which is the way I resolving conflict. An important question that needs to
framed it, is not simply to think that a map of socio- be asked is, "What does this solution mean for Bos-
economic well-being necessarily tells us something nia?" "What does it mean for the larger Islamic
about ethnicity, but rather to think about socioeco- world?"
nomic well-being in relation to how it is understood
and interpreted. Whether you are well off or poor, the But third, and most important, is the need to have a
key issue is whether you feel like your well-being is clear understanding of a region's territorial and ethnic
threatened-a feeling of marginalization. That is what realities. Conflict resolution implies some kind of plan
is important in considering patterns of socioeconomic to create a stable situation. I made some comments
differentiation, about the inefficacy of the Vance-Owen plan. I made
them because the plan and other plans that have been
QUESTION: Both the speakers have presented some articulated for the division of Bosnian territory into
very tantalizing concepts that I think would fit well monoethnic regions fail to take into consideration sev-
into a strategy of conflict prevention, which I hope we eral fundamental territorial and ethnic realities-one
talk a little bit about in the next two days. I would like of which is that, for all the usefulness of the general-
to ask Dr. Murphy to say something about conflict res- ized ethnic map of the country, it hides as much as it
olution. Once people have decided to use guns to
readjust these territorial boundaries and once that
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