1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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a generalized framework is feasible. First, it is impor- conflicts in that tortured land and allowed a peaceful
tant to distinguish between unstable group circum- transition to separate states.
stances and triggering actions that lead to strife.
Almost by definition, the presence of a minority - Maintenance of an unsatisfactory ethnic status quo
nation constitutes an unstable situation. Identifying is generally futile for a country and certainly can be
the presence of such nations is an essential first step. costly in terms of transfer payments and policing.
Next, it is important to consider possible elements that Although the United States sided with Gorbachev in
can set off conflict. Regimes control volatile internal attempting to preserve the Soviet Union intact, Rus-
situations through a variety of devices, ranging from sia's loss of its Central Asian territories was of long-
totalitarian suppression to meaningful autonomy. No term benefit to the Russian people in stemming the
matter how successful a policy may be, even in the outflow of funds to a region that has grave social
long term, it will not satisfy all individuals. Extremists and economic problems.
for a national cause can find ways to manipulate group
opinion that is disaffected for any reason. A dramatic - Gains or losses of territory generally affect only the
change of circumstances can Provide the extremists local inhabitants of the areas involved, with little
with strong levers. We recently witnessed the mobili- impact upon the overall economy and standards of
zation of latent national antagonisms in Yugoslavia, living. Although difficult to believe, even the United
despite more than four decades of universal indoctri- States could cede Texas or California to Mexico and
nation of the population in the slogan of "brotherhood still maintain much the same well-being of its
and unity." A disastrously deteriorating economy, a remaining inhabitants, whether or not NAFTA came,
model of political change presented by a collapsing into existence.
Soviet Union, and unwise actions by a federal army
attempting to suppress autonomy allowed nationalist " Small independent states can flourish if they are
true believers to mobilize their nations. Once ignited, willing to yield economic sovereignty to a broader
national passions fed upon themselves, each group's common market. The inhabitants of 999-square-
reactions engendering countetactions from the others. mile Luxembourg have done quite well for them-
Virtually nobody remains a "'ugoslav" any more, selves as part of Benelux and now the European
Community. Communist Albania, in contrast, com-
mitted economic suicide by cutting ties to all neigh-
Some Suggestions for American Policy in Dealing bors and potential partners.
With Ethnic Conflict Abroad
. Allowing national groups to form states of their own
Political geography has evolved some truisms over the does not inherently result in more intense national-
years that are useful for considering ethnic conflict. isms and potentials for greater international strife
Among them are the following: but, on the contrary, can have a sobering effect.
Latvians and Slovaks are having second thoughts
- The present configuration of states is far from ideal about their national quests for independence as they
and embodies tensions that have the potential to must now assume full responsibility for maintaining
result in fragmentations and shifts of territory. themselves.
Attempts to preserve the existing status quo in the
name of peace can well exacerbate unstable situa- Above all, it is important to perceive states in terms of
tions and even hasten conflict. It is unfortunate that their total political geography. More specifically, it is
the United States Government tacitly supported the the ethnic content of a state that is important, not its
Serbian-dominated regime's attempt to maintain external boundaries. This was a principal fallacy of
intact the Yugoslav state in the face of escalating geopolitical thinking, which laid stress upon the
national minority demands for secession. A firm geometry of states, their positions, sizes, and
statement to the Yugoslav Government that the use "resources," rather than upon their degrees of unity
of force to maintain unity was intolerable to the and the abilities of their governments to elicit support
United States might have obviated the current from inhabitants for "my country, right or wrong."
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