1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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Iraq, have endured violent ethnic strife in recent years. Although a number of political geographers have
African states likewise are diverse, with clashes addressed questions of ethnicity, they have not come
occurring particularly along the Sahelian fault zone up with a viable theory that would allow identification
between Arabic and Sub-Saharan cultures. For a van- of what circumstances escalate diversity into conflict
ety of reasons, few nations have emerged south of the or prediction of when and where such conflict is likely
Sahara. Extreme tribal and linguistic diversity charac- to occur. This is not to say that they have not devel-
terizes most Sub-Saharan states. Nigeria contains oped interesting insights. One of the more useful theo-
more than 300 distinctive groups and Zaire more than retical concepts that have been developed in recent
200. years is that of "core-periphery" relationships. In
many states the capital city and its surrounding area
Diversity also characterizes the states of South Asia. dominate the economy, politics, and culture of a coun-
India long has encountered secessionist movements in try. The American geographer Mark Jefferson
its northeastern and northwestern wings, and it has observed this recurring regularity at the turn of the
mounting troubles with its Sikh and Dravidian minori- century and called it "The Law of the Primate City."
ties. Pakistan already has lost Bangladesh and faces In core-periphery theory, the metropolitan center
severe problems with Pathans, Sindhis, and Baluchis. exploits peripheral areas, a high proportion of which
Even a tiny state like Bhutan must contend with an 18- differ from the dominant area in ethnicity and stan-
percent regional minority of Nepalese. dard of living. Although attractive for its seeming uni-
versality, core-periphery theory proves to be of little
Although the states of mainland and insular Southeast use as a guide to specific problems. While its premise
Asia are typified by well-developed dominant nations, fits many states, it runs counter to the situation in
each contains numerous minorities, some of which many others. Thus, the peripheral areas of Catalonia
now are evolving into true minority nations. Burma, and the Basque region long have dominated the econ-
Indonesia, and the Philippines endure continuing strife omy of Spain, and living standards in Alsace-Lorraine
in their outer areas. In contrast, East Asian states are are higher than in most of the rest of France.
remarkably homogeneous and calm, with the notable
exception of China. Although 92 percent of its popula- Ethnic conflict is unpredictable. Each state situation
tion may be considered members of the Chinese constitutes a unique combination of differing groups,
nation, the remaining 8 percent dominate more than inherited traditions, and external circumstances.
60 percent of its total territory. Although one may wish to see recurring regularities or
scientific laws at work, there are simply too few cases
The Anglo-American, Latin-American, and Australa- that individually differ too much to permit an elabora-
sian states are notable for minimal minority problems. tion of theory comparable to that of the physical sci-
The chief exception is Qu6begois separatism in Can- ences.
ada. The indigenous population in many states of
Latin America shows signs of restiveness, however, The unpredictability of-conflict perhaps is best seen in
particularly in the Andean region and in Central the internecine struggle in Somalia. Of all the states of
America. Sub-Saharan Africa, internal strife would seem least
likely to occur in that country due to its homogeneity
in language and religion. However, Somalia's unique
Factors Aggravating or Ameliorating clan system has much in common with national diver-
Ethnic Conflict sity in Europe and elsewhere, and warfare between
clans came on the heels of the failure of a highly cen-
The currently escalating frictions among nations tralized, despotic regime.
within states can be ascribed to a number of factors,
including the increasing media avenues for promoting Despite the seeming impossibility of formulating a
nationalist views and the post-Cold War drying up of viable theory to examine potentials for ethnic conflict,
superpower funds that often were used by client states
to appease or suppress troublesome minorities.
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