1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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The Demographic Backdrop to adjustment of demographic data. Most such data,
Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic moreover, are not seen as threatening by governments.
Overview Certainly there are cases where certain population
information is viewed as terribly dangerous (Lebanon
or Iraq's religious compositions, for example), but,
Gary Fyller even when this is the case, other demographic data
Professor of Geography and unrelated to policymakers' phobias may be unaf-
Population Studies fected. Finally, censuses have to be conducted openly.
University of Hawaii Information about their quality and the nature of their
biases is widely circulated in the demographic com-
munity, and sometimes "corrections" are advanced by
Introduction demographers outside the country. The only effective
way to keep demographic data secret is not to collect
Following the breakup of the former Soviet Union, them.
Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan strongly criticized
US intelligence estimates that, he alleged, had ignored
Soviet demographic and health statistics. Moynihan Demographic Indicators of Instability
argued that any society that exhibited the symptoms of
the USSR-which included rising overall mortality Consider also that certain demographic trends corre-
and a high incidence of alcoholism-could not be a late highly with socioeconomic variables; were it notlegitimate economic or military threat to the United for this fact, demographic transition would be an
States. The criticism is unfair in one sense, since it arcane model of little interest to any but abstract theo-
does not require national health or sobriety to launch rists. Thus, it requires only a small logical step to seemissiles. Nevertheless, Moynihan's observation about that socioeconomic data and trends (perhaps closely
the role of demographic statistics in intelligence anal- guarded or disguised) are imbedded in demographic
ysis is insightful. data that are open and aboveboard. Hungary offers an
interesting example. As a former Warsaw Pact mem-
States sometimes go to great lengths to disguise data ber, Hungary was quite guarded in releasing social
about their economies and societies, usually with the and economic data, but its population data are among
motive of misleading their enemies (and perhaps their the best in the world.
own citizens as well). More commonly, however,
accurate data are elusive because they are difficult and I do not mean to imply either that censuses ought toexpensive to collect, analyze, and interpret. I once replace electronic surveillance in the intelligence kit
spent several months visiting and collecting data from bag or that demographic data can entirely compensate
remote family planning clinics in Chile, and I was for a lack of socioeconomic data. My point is thatstruck with how different thesituation at the clinics population data are a rich vein that is not mined suffi-was compared with the official reports in Santiago. ciently and that academic researchers and intelligence
My experience is highly typical, I think, and is shared analysts have the opportunity to use census data inby most who have done field research. creative ways that give new insight into societal
trends. Perhaps because the data are easy to come by,Demographic data are almost'always the best data that their value is not fully appreciated.
are available for a society. This is not to say that they,
are good; indeed, they are often very poor. I am only A comprehensive case for the value of the demo-here advancing a comparative judgment. Govern- graphic perspective in assessing intelligence issuesments collecting demographic data (whether censuses, would require more space than I have available. I hopevital registers, or surveys) can call upon an impressive a few aspects of the "correlation" I mentioned earlierbody of international experience and knowledge con- will suffice.
cerning the planning, execution, interpretation, and
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