1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

C00123268
Summary of Discussion The outlook for Kurds achieving a state is grim. Pro-
fessor Mikesell says it is impossible, and maybe it is.
But in this region we can never say never, as evi-
Discussant: Mildred Berman denced by the recent gasp-provoking handshake
between PLO Chief Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister
In contrast to some areas we have talked about, the Rabin on the lawn of the White House. In the past,
Middle East is relatively small in terms of total popu- some outside assistance has gone to the Kurds in an
lation. It contains some 300 million people--only effort to destabilize the regime in Iraq. During the
about 6 percent of the world's population-although it 1970s, for instance, Israel and the United States sent
certainly takes up a disproportionate share of the in arms to shore up the Kurdish cause, but, as we all
headlines. know, this did not work. Since the Persian Gulf war,
there has been a fair amount of pressure brought to
This is an area with a long cultural history. Three of bear on Turkey in the hope that it might promote some
the world's most influential religions have come from Kurdish autonomy in the area, but this does not seem
here. It has been an area of the first domestication of to be working. The tragedy is that, with so many other
crops, first settlement, first cities, and so on. things going on in this part of the world, the Kurdish
cause is definitely on the back burner.
In addition, this is a place through which tribes as well
as empires have moved, changed, and reinvented Regarding Lebanon, that country-a very unsuccess-
themselves. This means, then, that the areal extent of ful experiment as Professor Mikesell has so rightly
the region keeps shifting like the sands. We have described-was programmed for failure from the
heard the area called the Near East, the Hither East, beginning. The separation of Lebanon from Syria
and Southwest Asia. The terms Near East and Hither overlooked the fact that members of the country's
East included the Balkans because they were part of 17 individual sects had loyalties not only to their reli-
the Ottoman Empire. Today, the term Middle East is gious groups but also to tribes and villages as well.
common, but during World War II the Middle East This has continued until the present time. Lebanon
Command went as far south as Kenya. then has had no real political control over its many
peoples.
One of the terms that geographers and anthropologists
use when discussing this region is "mosaic." It is a The country began to unravel in the 1970s with the
very poetic term and appropriate because of the won- establishment of individual fiefdoms and, again, with
derful mosaic floors left by the Romans and the the PLO ministate, which was destroyed by the 1982
mosaic work on the mosques throughout much of-the incursion of the Israel Defense Forces. Today, the
area. But a mosaic implies symmetry, and, as you have infrastructure in Beirut and Southern Lebanon is in
just heard from Professor Mikesell, the intense variety shambles. It is uncertain whether the country will ever
of people here is not very symmetrical. In talking reemerge as a banking center, tourist attraction, or an
about mosaics, I recently read something very inter- air transport hub.
esting. After Jerusalem was retaken by the Saracens
under Saladin in the 12th century, many tiles of the The Syrian Army presence remains a real danger;
Dome of the Rock had to be replaced because they there are 40,000 Syrian troops in the country, and they
had begun to fall off. The people who put the tiles show no sign of moving. The Christians are very
back were not Muslim artisans, but Armenian Chris- much concerned about what may happen if the Syri-
tians; one of the great monuments in the Muslim ans move to annex Lebanon. They fear that this will
world was repaired by laborers from another religion. be bad for them, and many Muslims in the area also
fear the repressiveness of the Syrian regime.
I would like to comment on two of the issues that Pro-
fessor Mikesell adressed: the Kurdish situation and
Lebanon.
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