1995-10-01a- CIA Conference Report: THE CHALLENGE OF ETHNIC CONFLICT TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER IN THE 1990S GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 01-Oct-95

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subsequent revolutionary rule of Ayatollah Khomeini, only Arabic. This process of gradual, voluntary assim-the assassination of An war Sadat, and the Iraqi inva- ilation should also result in the Arabization of the
Sentire region. Uncertaind a rtanet n te speakers of several languages in the Sahelian zone. Oneatereionsi. nTinty isa certaizt in Middle the other hand, some numerically small groups,Eastern studies. This a priori generalization is sus- defined by either language or religion, may avoid or
taed by another equally obvious generalization be able to resist assimilation, especially if they haveEach of the dictators and monarchs is mortal, and we low national visibility. The non-Iranian linguisticcan only speculate on what their departure might groups in the Zagros Mountains may exemplify thismean for the region. Taking account of the many dis- prospect. Christians will doubtless survive and evenputed boundaries in the regio (for example, Iraq-Ian, prosper in countries that are able to resist the pressuresIsrael-Syria, ibya-Chad, Morcco-Algera) invites of Islamic fundamentalism. Lebanon, Syria, and pos-
additional speculation. sibly Iraq could exemplify this prospect. The alterna-The iffsionwitinhe rgid ofvarius x ;tive situation, in which non-Muslims are threatened,fThe diffusion within the regi n of various expressions would occur inevitably in any country that is captured
of Islamic fundamentalism is'a cause of further and by Islamic fundamentalists.more serious uncertainty. Islamic fundamentalism can
result in persecution of heterodox Muslim groups, Finally, it is probablysuch as the Druze, Alawites, Yezidis, and Bahais, and of Palestineisnot likely to beasolved coampletely m
can exacerbate the tension between Sunni and Shia within the coming decade. The various ideas that haveMuslims and among Muslims who might be labeled been entertained for solution of the Israeli-Palestinianvariously as worldly or other-worldly, pro-Western or problem seem without exception to have inherent con-anti-Western, and moderate or radical. At present, Iran tradictions. Trading land for peace presupposes Israeliis the principal exporter and coordinator of move- willingness to trade enough land to satisfy Palestinianments designed to subvert and eventually supplant aspirations. This unrealistic formula also Presupposesecular authority. This movement has crossed the that Jewish settlers n pottial also prritposes
region's Sunni-Shia faultline, now presents a seiwish pers indpotential Palestinisninirritory
threat to the Governments of Egypt and Algeria d be lie aded to leave. Again, tan mayis a potential threat elsewhere. Even Turkey, officially denebut only if this isa transitional rather than asecular since the time of Ataturk, has experenced ernet ongeent. is a Palethana
unrest inspired by Islamic zealots. Because it is mili- Jordanian confederaton are also being entertained,tary rather than civil authority that is most likely to be but this prospect merely defers questions about theeffective in blocking revolutioiary religious move- character and area of the Palestinian part of the union.ments, Islamic fundamentalism acts both directly and Because it is not likely that Arabs will ever be able toindirectly in the frustration or delay of democratic live contentedly in a Jewish state or Jews in an Arabdevelopment in the region. The thinly disguised Army state and no realistic proposal has been advanced that
coup of January 1993 in Algeria is a good illustration could result in the separation of the two peoples, the
of this principle. Arab-Israeli problem probably will be with us for
In spite of this recitation of circustances that make many years.
npe hi ecttion ofusihcicumstancs ithtmkprediction hazardous in the Middle East, it is possible The problem of Kurdistan also seems to be intractable
to point to some happy and unhappy constants regard- and so canbergddasacnttinheMdl
ing minority groups. For example, it is safe to assume Eastern culturalpolitical equation. If the area nowthat the Arabization of the Berber areas of North occupied by Kurds were to become an independentAfrica will continue without interruption. As a result state, it would be no less viable than many of theof improvements in communication and education, existing states in the region. It would have abundantmountain and desert peoples who now speak only
Berber will become bilingual and eventually speak
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