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Warsaw Pact Air Forces: Support of Strategic Operations in Central Europe, CIA/DI/SOVA Intelligence Assessment, January 1985.

Central Intelligence Agency · 95 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency Directorate of Intelligence assessment, dated January 1985, examines how Warsaw Pact air forces would support large strategic operations in Central Europe. It concludes that the Soviets see NATO air power as the greatest threat to a Pact ground offensive. They revised their air supremacy plans in 1980 and 1981 to use sector-concentrated raids and a defensive air operation. The assessment also finds that heavy aircraft losses and limited deep attack capability would remain serious problems. The document has no UFO content.

  • p. 4 …This perceived shift in the air balance-probably caused by a combination of closer French cooperation…
  • p. 35 …an increasingly difficult a large number of cooperating headquarters. It would problem for the Pact air…
  • p. 46 …through NATO's forward air defenses in cooperation of the first two echelons at the con…
  • p. 90 …key role in the usually with the cooperation of other forces. An air front airspace management…
'op\Secret
%writingsindicate that the newly created wartime theater high command
headquarters was designated as the focal point for integrating the planning
and direction of complex theaterwide air defense operations (and also
oflensive air operations)-a responsibility formerly shared by the Soviet
Air Forces Main StalT and the multitude of regional air defense com-
mands. The Soviets also unified their na tional and tactical air defense
systems and established joint command posts for the air forces and the air
defense forces at each command echelon to improve coordination of
simultaneous offensive and defensive activity.
Persistent Problems. Despite these initiatives, we believe the Pact air
forces would have to overcome several serious problems to successfully
complete their air supremacy campaign:
- Aircraft losses substantially higher than anticipated would probably
- prevent the Pact from decisively winning the air supremacy battle of
attrition and force the cancellation or 'he offensive air operation. Losses
higher than anticipated would be a ditinct possibility, because the Soviet
General Stalks aircraft attrition planning factors appear highly
op mtiistic.
- Pact deep attack capabilities are limited by inadequate equipping and
training of fighter forces for ensuring local air superiority in NATO's
rear areas, a lack of ellicient munitions for cutting runways or neutraliz-
ing clusters of hardened aircraft shelters, and a lack of suitable sensors
and training in front aviation for conducting large offensive operations at
night or in adverse weather.
. Pact air forces also have only a limited capability to find NATO's
concealed mobile surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs)-yet we believe the
Pact probably will plan to divert many more aircraft from attacking
airfields to instead hunting for SSMs because of the introduction of
" Pershing [Is and GLCMs.
* Airspace management and stalT coordination among the many force
components and nationalities participating in such large, complex theater
operations is vulnerable to breakdowns
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.