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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
as 1969 or 1970. missile. The Backfire is well suited for the peripheral
strike mission and greatly improves the payload and
penetration capabilities of Soviet bomber forces tar-
geted against NATO. The mobile SS-20 force, when
fully deployed, will have greater survivability and
destructive power than the present peripheral missile
169. Missile warhead storage capacity in Central force.
Europe appears adequate, provided the higher esti-
mates of capacity are correct, but bomb storage 171. Elements of all the Soviet strategic attack
capacity appears to be insufficient to satisfy the forces-the Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF), Long
reuirements for tactical nuclear operations Range Aviation (LRA), and the Soviet Navy-have the
mission of carrying out nuclear strikes against NATO
Soviets are estimated to have storage capacity or only targets. (See table II-12.) These include medium- and
200 to 605 bombs in East Germany, 70 to 185 in intermediate-range ballistic missiles (SS-4 MRBMs,
Poland, and 30 to 95 in Czechoslovakia. They prob- SS-5 and SS-20 IRBMs), LRA bombers (Badger,
ably plan to move additional bombs and warheads into Blinder, Backfire), and ballistic missile submarines
the forward area from the numerous tactical nuclear (G-class and IH-class). Only a relatively small portion
weapons storage sites in the western USSR before or of the USSR's ICBMs and modern ballistic missile
during hostilities. submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets
in NATO Europe, and the 150 strike-configured Bear
and Bison bombers in LRA are intended mainly for
intercontinental missions.
172. Medium- and Intermediate-Range Ballistic
Missiles. The major portion of the land-based ballistic
missile force that would be employed for peripheral
Soviet Peripheral Strike Forces " attack consists of 416 SS-4 MRBM and 80 SS-5 IRBM
launchers located at 54 complexes in the European
170. For strategic forces the most significant devel- and south-central USSR. (See figure II-28.) This force
opments have been the deployment of the Backfire includes 11.8 silo launchers and 378 aboveground
bomber and the SS-20 intermediate-range ballistic launchers with fixed launch pads, a mode of deploy-
ment which makes them vulnerable to attack. Of these
E This section summarizes the current status of Soviet peripheral launchers, 445 are believed to be aimed against NATOstrategic forces intended for use against NATO. A more detailed
description of the deployment patterns and technical characterisitics and other targets on the western periphery of the
of these systems is contained in NIE 11-6-78, Soviet Strategic Forces USSR. The remaining 51 launchers probably are for
for PeripheralAttack, use against targets in Asia and the Middle East.
1-49
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.