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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
as 1969 or 1970. missile. The Backfire is well suited for the peripheral
strike mission and greatly improves the payload and
penetration capabilities of Soviet bomber forces tar-
geted against NATO. The mobile SS-20 force, when
fully deployed, will have greater survivability and
destructive power than the present peripheral missile
169. Missile warhead storage capacity in Central force.
Europe appears adequate, provided the higher esti-
mates of capacity are correct, but bomb storage 171. Elements of all the Soviet strategic attack
capacity appears to be insufficient to satisfy the forces-the Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF), Long
reuirements for tactical nuclear operations Range Aviation (LRA), and the Soviet Navy-have the
mission of carrying out nuclear strikes against NATO
Soviets are estimated to have storage capacity or only targets. (See table II-12.) These include medium- and
200 to 605 bombs in East Germany, 70 to 185 in intermediate-range ballistic missiles (SS-4 MRBMs,
Poland, and 30 to 95 in Czechoslovakia. They prob- SS-5 and SS-20 IRBMs), LRA bombers (Badger,
ably plan to move additional bombs and warheads into Blinder, Backfire), and ballistic missile submarines
the forward area from the numerous tactical nuclear (G-class and IH-class). Only a relatively small portion
weapons storage sites in the western USSR before or of the USSR's ICBMs and modern ballistic missile
during hostilities. submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets
in NATO Europe, and the 150 strike-configured Bear
and Bison bombers in LRA are intended mainly for
intercontinental missions.
172. Medium- and Intermediate-Range Ballistic
Missiles. The major portion of the land-based ballistic
missile force that would be employed for peripheral
Soviet Peripheral Strike Forces " attack consists of 416 SS-4 MRBM and 80 SS-5 IRBM
launchers located at 54 complexes in the European
170. For strategic forces the most significant devel- and south-central USSR. (See figure II-28.) This force
opments have been the deployment of the Backfire includes 11.8 silo launchers and 378 aboveground
bomber and the SS-20 intermediate-range ballistic launchers with fixed launch pads, a mode of deploy-
ment which makes them vulnerable to attack. Of these
E This section summarizes the current status of Soviet peripheral launchers, 445 are believed to be aimed against NATOstrategic forces intended for use against NATO. A more detailed
description of the deployment patterns and technical characterisitics and other targets on the western periphery of the
of these systems is contained in NIE 11-6-78, Soviet Strategic Forces USSR. The remaining 51 launchers probably are for
for PeripheralAttack, use against targets in Asia and the Middle East.
1-49
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.